Editorial
Stern Editor-in-Chief
How Trump is preparing for his second term: Gregor Peter Schmitz on the current star title
This week is dedicated to star Donald Trump’s ambitions for a second term as US President
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Editor-in-Chief Gregor Peter Schmitz takes a look at the new star-heft and talks this week about the election campaign in the USA and Trump’s plans.
UK betting shops, where you can bet on any event in the world, have good news and bad news for US President Joe Biden. The good news: You now rate Biden’s chance of completing his first term as very good. This is progress, because because of his age (Biden is 80 years old), the bookmakers had serious doubts about it for a long time. The bad news: Biden’s betting odds of winning a second term are a razor thin ahead of the prospects Donald Trump’s. Within a few weeks, this should be considered a favorite in betting shops.
This may amuse us or seem strange, like so many things since Trump has been part of our lives. But to this day we are still laughing. Therefore, we should take the omens deadly seriously this time too: The bet that Joe Biden or simply the countless scandals of Trump will somehow prevent his comeback could be the riskiest political bet of all time.
For Donald Trump, it’s jail or the Oval Office
The American constitutional state cannot stop him. Trump could also become president as a convicted criminal, and he hopes for this acquittal at the ballot box: jail or the Oval Office. A conviction would probably even help him present himself as a victim of a gigantic conspiracy.
And Joe Biden? Maybe he really is the only Democrat who can win against Trump, after all he did it before. He seems down-to-earth, not aloof like Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. He created a lot of jobs and held the West together in the Ukraine crisis. He is fighting climate change like none of his predecessors.
But despite (or because of) Biden is a very unpopular president. He’s actually far too old and weak for a long campaign. Four years ago he didn’t have to carry it, because of Corona he was mostly allowed to stay at home in the basement. Now he has to go out to the people. What if he forgets where he is or falls badly in front of everyone? Many US Democrats do not dare to address these concerns. Trump would not hesitate for a moment to tell Biden to his face on the open stage that he was senile.
Looking into a possible future with Trump
Asking around politicians in Berlin how they are preparing for a possible Trump comeback always gets the same evasive answer: praise for Joe Biden. He is much wiser, more decisive, more agile than he appears. And he will win in the end. But what if not? Right-wing ideologues, as our cover team around Washington correspondent Marc Etzold describes, are already planning a far better organized and less chaotic second Trump term. They want to deal the deathblow to environmental protection, the global order, the trading system.
A few examples: Trump wants to all but stop supporting Ukraine within 24 hours, undermine climate agreements, and strangle trade with punitive tariffs. The struggle with China, diplomatically balanced by Biden, could escalate into war. Our politicians have to face uncomfortable truths. Yes, we will need more money for defense if the US fails as a protecting power. Yes, we must push trade deals with other regions, even if they are unpopular. And yes, we have to learn to think strategically again. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who likes to present himself as a particularly far-sighted man, must at least prepare us for a world without a reliable American partner. Anything else would be grossly negligent.
Speaking of victim staging: In our current Forsa survey, almost half of those surveyed are in favor of a ban on the AfD – and as many as ten percent of AfD supporters. Either they didn’t understand the question, or they hope that such a ban will give their movement further impetus.