Grain agreement: Security expert Mölling believes Russia is ready to negotiate

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“Ukraine – the situation”
Expert Mölling: Russia is willing to negotiate on the grain agreement, it’s all about the price

Grain harvest and export has become a weapon in the Ukraine war.

© Jens Büttner / DPA

Stephen Schmitz

Christian Mölling sees good chances of reaching an agreement with Russia on the export of Ukrainian grain. The security expert believes that Moscow is “raising the temperature in the conflict surrounding wheat” – in other words, the price.

Security expert Christian Mölling sees good chances, but still an agreement with To reach Russia to export Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea. Mölling said in the stern podcast “Ukraine – the situation” that the Russian side “is raising the temperature in the entire conflict surrounding wheat”. However, the aim of this policy is not to permanently prevent exports, but to wring the greatest possible concessions from the West to continue transport. “It’s about driving the price up,” said the research director of the German Society for Foreign Policy on the Russian approach, which he believes amounts to using hunger as a weapon. Russia had announced that in future it would consider all ships calling at Ukrainian ports as potential carriers of military goods – and thus as legitimate targets for its own armed forces.

China and South Africa could put pressure on Russia

Mölling said one had to weigh up the risks for Ukraine and its supporters if the transports continued. Then you have to think: “How to increase the costs for Russia in the event of a possible attack on these ships?” Although Russia is currently building up a threat, it is not certain that this will also lead to success. He pointed out that not only African countries are interested in grain supplies, but also China – Russia’s most important partner.

China, South Africa and other countries could say to Russia: “You are harming us and ultimately you.” The expert expects that the United Nations – of which Russia, as a permanent member, has a right of veto in the Security Council – will be able to contribute little. In the end, solving the conflict is about pure power politics. “The classic institutional world, where the rule of law and binding nature work, doesn’t work here.” Other mechanisms are crucial: “If you keep doing that, we’ll do A, B, C and D.” The question now is “what will happen on the international stage in the next few days and weeks to capture this situation”.

Putin is ready to go very far

Mölling advised not to be intimidated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. “I would assume that Russia is acting totally rationally,” he said. “What it has done is underline that it is willing to go very far.” This demonstration is aimed at the debates in the West: “You also know that we in the West are gasping for breath again on the whole issue.” This drives up the price of an agreement. “I think Russia is ready to negotiate. We have to think about how to get the price under control.”

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