Government formation in Berlin: Giffey has a choice

The Berlin SPD had to tremble about the election victory and is now facing difficult coalition talks. In order to become the governing mayor, Giffey needs a three-way alliance.

The election evening began for the Berlin SPD with a moment of shock that lasted for several hours. As the first at 6 p.m. at the election party ARD forecast appeared on the big screen, it became very quiet in the hall: 21.5 percent, clearly below the polls before the election. Then there was a collective outcry when the result of the Greens popped up: 23.5 percent. The election victory expected by many SPD supporters suddenly seemed to be over. The tide didn’t seem to turn until around 9 p.m.

When all ballot papers in Berlin were counted on Monday morning – almost punctually at 6 a.m. – the SPD was only 21.4 percent, slightly worse than in the Berlin election five years ago. Nevertheless, she won because the Greens had fallen to 18.9 percent during the night. Franziska Giffey, who once vacated the office of Federal Family Minister due to a plagiarism affair, is now expected to become Berlin’s new Governing Mayor. The first woman at the head of Berlin’s urban politics since SPD legend Louise Schröder was acting mayor in 1947 and 1948.

The 43-year-old Giffey can now choose the political partners for a government coalition almost at will. However, no option is free from pitfalls. Giffey had already emphasized on election evening that she could not get past the Greens, at least during the exploratory talks. “There is a clear vote for the SPD and the Greens, we have to deal with that,” she told the broadcaster Phoenix. Giffey stayed with it when the SPD continued to break away during the night.

Not an option free from pitfalls

However, further cooperation with the second largest party in the federal capital would not be unproblematic. Especially with the mobility transition, Giffey is pressing the brakes, she doesn’t want to displace privately used cars nearly as quickly as the Greens from the Berlin cityscape. The Greens are also significantly more ambitious than the SPD when it comes to achieving the climate targets, which could be difficult, especially in the debate about further requirements, for example in the construction sector. Another entry on the list of differences is that the Greens would rather build new trams instead of underground lines. However, it is not enough for a red-green two-party alliance anyway. Giffey needs a third partner.

Red-Green-Black

According to the preliminary election results, the most stable in numbers in Berlin would be the so-called “Kenya coalition” with the Greens and the CDU. But that of all the more left-wing Berlin Greens will enter into this alliance must be seriously doubted. The argument is not only about the extension of the A100 autobahn across the south-east of Berlin, but also about the schedule for the road to Berlin’s climate neutrality. In addition, the police-friendly “law-and-order” approach of the CDU does not fit green ideas of cannabis legalization and anti-discrimination requirements for the security authorities.

Expropriation of real estate companies

The three partners could at least converge on housing policy: Although the Green top candidate Bettina Jarasch did not flatly reject the socialization of large real estate companies, the move is only “ultima ratio” for her. Instead, it relies on the cooperation of all actors, including from the private sector, in the construction of new homes, which could be done with the SPD and CDU. However, it is still questionable how much the green base in Berlin will respond to the election after the election Implementation of the successful referendum “Expropriate Deutsche Wohnen und Co” will throb.

For all of the above – and many other – reasons, a red-yellow-green traffic light from the SPD, Greens and FDP would currently hardly be conceivable in Berlin. That would probably fail because of the dispute over the development of the Tempelhofer Feld. Because the Liberals want to force apartments on the ex-airfield by referendum, but the Greens flatly reject them there. The fact that the FDP and the Greens share the desire for legal cannabis should hardly be enough to compensate.

Red-black-yellow

It would have been much easier for Giffey with the only possible coalition for which she does not need the Greens: red-black-yellow – the so-called Germany coalition. In terms of content, it would fit Giffey in numerous subject areas, from interior policy to climate policy and housing policy.

The biggest obstacle, however, is likely to be one’s own party: It is hardly to be expected that the Berlin SPD base will support cooperation with the CDU and FDP without complaint. The party youth had already spoken out in favor of a continuation of red-red-green before the election. This is exactly what 44 percent of Berliners did in the representative pre-election survey by Infratest dimap. No other coalition option received more support – even though at the same time only 38 percent of those surveyed were satisfied with the previous government. A contradiction that even Giffey will probably not be able to resolve without problems.