Government crisis in Austria: Many scenarios – none is easy

One thing is pretty certain: in view of the corruption investigations against Chancellor Kurz, something will change in Austria’s government, by Tuesday at the latest. A number of scenarios are conceivable – but all of them are quite complicated.

In legal terms, Austria’s Federal Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is currently presumed innocent, but politically the matter is more complex. Will you stay in office for a short time? Does the green coalition partner support that? Are completely new alliances possible? Or will there be a temporary government of experts again in the end – as it was in 2019? That will probably be clarified by Tuesday at the latest.

Despite the corruption investigations against him, Kurz knows his own party behind him. The regional ÖVP bosses in all nine Austrian federal states “are one hundred percent behind Sebastian Kurz,” said Günther Platter. He is provincial governor – that’s what the Prime Minister is called in Austria – and a heavyweight within the ÖVP. However, leading ÖVP representatives also call the corruption allegations against Kurz “serious” and “incomprehensible”.

Greens want “impeccable” ÖVP bosses

For Kurz, more problematic than his own party is that he cannot govern without a coalition partner. Since January 2020, it has been the Greens who have been too short for a long time, although the current government crisis is not the first in the alliance’s existence. The Greens still want to hold on to the coalition with the ÖVP – but no longer to the Chancellor.

The continuation of the coalition is only possible with an “impeccable” new ÖVP Chancellor, say the Greens. It is becoming increasingly clear “that there is a harrowing, a terrifying, actually a horrible moral picture in the power center of the ÖVP,” said Green Party leader and Vice Chancellor Werner Kogler yesterday evening.

Massive allegations against Kurz

The public prosecutor is investigating Kurz and some of his closest confidants on suspicion of corruption and infidelity. The team is said to have secured Kurz’s rise to the top of the party and state since 2016 through embellished surveys and bought media reports.

Tax funds are also said to have flowed for this – which would mean that the citizens of Austria would also have “paid for their own manipulation”, as “Falter” journalist Florian Klenk put it in an interview with tagesschau.de.

The accused deny the allegations, which became known on Wednesday after a raid in the Federal Chancellery. Against Kurz, investigations into the suspicion of false testimony before a parliamentary committee of inquiry into the so-called Ibiza scandal have been ongoing for a long time.

Special role of the FPÖ

The Greens want to use the weekend to explore the opportunities for other possible alliances. The problem: the conservative ÖVP is by far the strongest force in parliament. An alliance against them would only be possible if the right-wing populist FPÖ were also involved.

That would be a difficult step for all the other parties represented in parliament – the Greens, the Social Democratic SPÖ and the liberal Neos. Because the head of the FPÖ, Herbert Kickl, sees politically very far to the right, is considered a vaccine skeptic and describes the mask requirement as “chicane”. In addition, the FPÖ is still stuck with the “Ibiza scandal”, which in 2019 led to the break of the coalition between ÖVP and FPÖ and plunged Austria into a serious political crisis.

SPÖ: four-party alliance “unlikely but possible”

According to media information, at least the Social Democrats are apparently ready to approach the FPÖ. The previous self-imposed ban on cooperation at the federal level could overturn, writes the newspaper “Die Presse” today. “The common cement is to clean up the Kurz system and bring stability and cleanliness back into the country,” the newspaper quoted SPÖ circles.

SPÖ boss Pamela Rendi-Wagner said on ORF, “extraordinary situations require extraordinary actions.” A four-party alliance made up of the SPÖ, Greens, Neos and the FPÖ described them as “unlikely, but possible”.

In such a constellation – currently referred to as the “concentration government” in Austria – it would be important that every minister carefully observed his departmental boundaries, she said. FPÖ boss Kickl would certainly not be health minister, said Rendi-Wagner. She herself would be available as Chancellor.

Special session of Parliament on Tuesday

Whether Kurz has to vacate the Chancellery will probably be decided by Tuesday at the latest. Because if he does not resign voluntarily – which Kurz has so far categorically excluded – the SPÖ, FPÖ and Neos then want to introduce a motion of no confidence at a special session in parliament. In order to overthrow Kurz, in addition to the votes of the opposition, six votes from the co-ruling Greens would also be necessary.

Should the required majority be found, Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen would have to remove Kurz from his office and entrust someone else with the continuation of government affairs. That could be Green leader Kogler – or someone from the ranks of the ÖVP. However, it is expected that Kurz’s resignation could trigger a kind of domino effect within the ÖVP, as many top politicians have declared their solidarity with Kurz.

Minority government is considered unlikely

The National Council – as the parliament is called in Austria – could also vote out the entire government on Tuesday by means of a vote of no confidence. Van der Bellen could then appoint a new chancellor and form a new government with him or her. However, because of the special role of the FPÖ, it is unclear what such a government could look like, which is then actually able to act.

Theoretically, it would be conceivable that the FPÖ would temporarily tolerate a minority government made up of the SPÖ, Greens and Neos. But that is considered unlikely.

No party wants new elections

Another variant would be – as in 2019 after the “Ibiza” break of the ÖVP / FPÖ coalition – the formation of a government of experts or officials. But it could probably only administer the country rather than rule it. After all, its members do not belong to any party, have correspondingly little backing in parliament and can therefore only implement larger political projects with great difficulty.

An expert government would only be conceivable as a transitional solution, but not as an option for the entire legislative period, which will run until the end of 2024. Only then will there be regular elections again. However, no party currently wants early elections. It would be the third parliamentary election in four years.