Germany’s role in the world: between leadership and weighing up

The federal government wants to play a leading role in Europe. The tactics involved in arms deliveries to Ukraine repeatedly irritate partners in NATO and the EU. What does that mean for the future?

Decades of German restraint on security issues must now come to an end – there is little doubt about that in the traffic light coalition. “Germany must play a strong leadership role,” said SPD leader Lars Klingbeil. He himself and others in his party even use the term “leading power”. But the question is: Do these words, so self-confidently spoken, also be followed by deeds – does Germany live up to its self-imposed standards?

Not only the new head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, has his doubts. It is true that Germany’s willingness to help when it comes to supporting Ukraine is clearly noticed – financially, in terms of armaments and also when it comes to taking in war refugees – but: “Everywhere you get the feeling that Germany is not in the lead, but is lagging behind hesitantly. You would – one hears this from all partners – would like Germany to play a stronger role.”

Germany – the shy leading power?

The federal government tries to demonstrate its energy here and there: For example, in the initiative to set up a missile protection umbrella in cooperation with partner countries in Europe – albeit without France. Or most recently when trying to forge a Leopard coalition to send main battle tanks to Ukraine in a coordinated manner.

The federal government recently discovered with some amazement how difficult this turned out to be – because all of a sudden the partners were hesitant to make commitments. It is an open question whether this was due to the fact that Berlin only started trying to forge so late. In any case, people in Ukraine didn’t understand why the chancellor didn’t want to head a possible European initiative in the summer or autumn – and ex-diplomat Heusgen feels the same way: “If we had done that then, we would be further along today .”

Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who once coined the phrase: “Anyone who orders leadership from me, gets it,” wants leadership to be understood in terms of arms deliveries in exactly this way: as a cautious approach, as a constant weighing up of which step makes sense at the moment. And as the renunciation of spelling out a strategy.

“Can we really trust the Germans?

But anyone who talks to officials of NATO partners with the microphone switched off or on learns how much Germany has shaken its reliability with behavior that is perceived as too timid and hesitant.

“Can we really trust the Germans? And would we really get help immediately if we needed it?” With these words, the Latvian Deputy Prime Minister Artis Pabriks asked the federal government a kind of vote of confidence in the autumn. And recently, as observers in Washington confirm, it also caused irritation in the USA that Germany was chained to a commitment from the USA on the battle tank question and did not make any advance payments itself.

The turning point in the mind

But one thing is clear: if the federal government is serious about its claim to leadership, it will have to take the people in Germany with it, in other words: it must anchor the turning point in people’s minds.

Something has already happened: For the Germans, Russia is currently the greatest security risk, according to a survey for the “Munich Security Conference”, explains research director Sophie Eisentraut: “The willingness to counter Russia economically and militarily has also changed massively .” At the same time, however, in a survey conducted by the Körber Foundation in autumn, a majority of Germans wished for restraint in foreign policy.

In any case, it is difficult to deny the impression that the partners on both sides of the Atlantic want Germany to play a leading role a little more than Germany does. There is no doubt that the Federal Republic only ever wants and will become active embedded in the EU and NATO.

Live up to your own standards

And this certainly harbors a great opportunity: at the latest after the election of Donald Trump as US President in 2016 and a beer tent speech by the then Chancellor Angela Merkel, the claim was formulated to make Europe more independent of the USA and to put it strategically on its own two feet. As has been seen in Afghanistan and in support to Ukraine, little has come of this aspiration in the past six years.

What would be absolutely necessary for this: to get the Franco-German engine going again and to convey to the Eastern Europeans that they are – finally – regarded as partners on an equal footing. Making decisive progress in Europe in the field of security would therefore be an opportunity for Germany to live up to its self-proclaimed claim to leadership.