analysis
Good outlook for Economics Minister Habeck: According to forecasts, the climate target by 2030 can be achieved. But many uncertainties remain. Things are currently going well for the climate, also because of the recession.
This morning, Economics and Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck is clearly trying to spread a positive mood in front of the press. He has something unusual and good to announce, “namely the success of climate protection.” The projection figures would show for the first time that Germany is on track when it comes to climate protection.
Joining Habeck via video is the head of the Federal Environment Agency, Dirk Messner. He actually has remarkable emissions data to announce; the calculations for last year and the projection data up to 2030 can be interpreted as hopeful. At least at first glance.
According to this, around ten percent fewer greenhouse gases were emitted in Germany last year than in 2022. Emissions fell significantly, particularly in electricity generation (minus 20.1 percent) and in industry (minus 7.7 percent).
But fewer greenhouse gases were also emitted in transport (minus 1.2 percent) and in the building sector (minus 7.5 percent) – although, as in previous years, both sectors exceed the targets set by the Climate Protection Act. If you add up all sectors, Germany achieved its climate goals last year.
People heated less
However, it’s worth taking a second look – and the supposed success doesn’t look nearly as convincing. Because the year 2023 was characterized by a slight recession and high energy prices. The associated effects explain a large part of the emission reductions. On the one hand, significantly less electricity was used – the high prices forced many companies and households to save money.
This can also largely explain the reduced greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector. In order to save money, people simply heated less, which was made even easier by the relatively mild weather.
In industry, high energy prices have led to significant declines in production in some sectors. The head of the Federal Environment Agency, Messner, speaks of “doldrums in the energy-intensive sector”.
Electricity generated abroad is not counted
In the electricity sector, another effect is reflected in the emissions figures: last year, Germany was a net importer of electricity for the first time in many years, meaning that over the year it purchased more electricity from abroad than it sold to neighboring countries. The shutdown of the last German nuclear power plants in spring 2023 played a part in this.
However, electricity generated abroad is not counted towards the local emissions figures. This improves the German greenhouse gas balance. According to the Federal Network Agency, conventionally generated electricity from coal, natural gas and nuclear power plants accounted for around 46 percent in the first three quarters of last year.
Network expansion is making slow progress
In view of the recession-related effects combined with high electricity prices, Habeck admits when asked that the data for 2023 has “lights and shadows”. The climate protection minister can positively say that the expansion of renewable power plants has recently made progress again after several weak years.
However, this applies above all to photovoltaic systems, while the wind power industry only recorded moderate growth last year. The important network expansion is also making slow progress. The bottom line is that the progress made in switching to renewables played its part in reducing greenhouse gases.
Overall, the 2023 balance sheet can only be sold as a great success if the negative effects of the poor economic situation are accepted.
Can Germany achieve the goals by 2030?
Habeck and Messner also looked ahead – to the year 20230. For the so-called projection data, the Federal Environment Agency said it commissioned an independent research consortium that used modeling to try to estimate the effects of current climate protection policy on greenhouse gas emissions. This is expressly not a forecast.
Habeck and Messner made these modeling a second focus of today’s press conference. The core message: Germany can achieve its ambitious goals by 2030 – and is on a promising path there. According to the federal government’s will, by 2030 greenhouse gas emissions will have been reduced by 65 percent compared to 1990. Around 46 percent fewer greenhouse gases are currently being emitted than in 1990.
Climate protection agreements put on the way
Until now, the projections had always assumed that significant progress would be achieved by 2030, but that there would be a so-called cumulative surplus of greenhouse gases – meaning that over the years Germany would emit more CO2 than provided for in the Climate Protection Act. The Federal Environment Agency and the Ministry of Economics justify the now clearly more positive projection with the assumption that certain measures will have a greater impact than previously taken into account.
The modeling assumes a very rapid expansion of renewables, and the industry will also emit fewer greenhouse gases even with better growth figures. The Federal Government’s declared goal is to promote the sustainable restructuring of energy-intensive sectors.
Just last week, Habeck launched so-called climate protection agreements worth billions. The controversial Building Energy Act is also intended to have an effect and replacing heating systems will ensure noticeably less CO2. And European emissions trading is likely to have a significantly greater impact from 2027 with ETS 2, as greenhouse gas emissions from driving and heating are likely to become noticeably more expensive.
Problem child Transport area
According to this projection, the problem child would remain the transport sector, which deviates most significantly from the goals of the current climate protection law. It is assumed that nothing fundamental will change by 2030. This should once again increase the pressure on Transport Minister Volker Wissing from the FDP to do more for climate protection in this sector.
However, the projection also assumes that the additional emissions from transport and buildings will be overcompensated by a particularly strong reduction in emissions from electricity generation and industry. This has also been true in recent years.
The federal government has agreed in principle to reform the Climate Protection Act so that the overall balance of greenhouse gas emissions will in future be valued significantly higher than the successes or failures in the individual sectors. The factions of the three traffic light parties are currently negotiating the details of the new climate protection law.
Habeck sees Germany on course
However, based on today’s figures, one thing is clear: the future projections in particular are fraught with many unknowns, especially since special effects arise practically every year – in recent years, for example, the pandemic, the energy crisis and the poor economic situation.
It is difficult to reliably predict whether all ambitious transformation goals will actually be achieved. For example, whether the hoped-for restructuring of the industry away from fossil fuels and towards green hydrogen will be successful.
Economics Minister Habeck still sees Germany on course. Maybe not entirely surprising. After all, he has been in office for two years now – and the climate-friendly restructuring of the country is his declared core concern. Habeck needs success now.