New York is sinking more and more and could be swallowed up by the sea. That’s what calculations by the American Geophysical Association predict. The main reason for this goes back to the Ice Age.
According to calculations by scientists at the American Geophysical Union, New York is expected to slide deeper by one to two millimeters every year. But what many media spread is very narrow, says oceanologist Matt Wei, who is involved in the study himself.
The main reason for the “sink trend” is not the size of the house. But the deformation of the ground after the Ice Age. At that time there was a large glacier in North America. Its edge was where New York is now, says Wei dem ARD Studio New York.
One millimeter per year
“If you imagine the surface of the earth as a balloon, then the glacier makes a dent where it runs. The edge goes up all around it. When the weight then eases, it goes up again at the pressure point – and around it it goes down. “
Like now in New York. One millimeter per year – that in itself is not dramatic, says the oceanologist from the University of Rhode Island. The three to four millimeters that the water level rises every year are more dangerous.
Hurricane “Sandy” as a warning?
The eight-million metropolis is only ten meters above sea level on average anyway – not counting the additional increase in water due to climate change. According to forecasts, the sea level could rise by 60 centimeters by 2050.
But New York has been shaken up since “Sandy” at the latest: 43 people died in the city alone in the devastating hurricane of 2012, and 90,000 buildings were flooded. There was damage in the billions. Since then, the city has invested billions in its coastal protection project, the “East Coastal Resiliency Project”.
Protective line of flood walls and gates
Civil engineer Ahmed Ibrahim explains that the water in “Sandy” was sometimes waist-deep for New Yorkers. The manager of the New York City Building Authority stands in front of a flood gate on the Lower East Side. “Sandy” not only flooded everything in many places and cut off the power supply, the flooding also locked numerous people in their basement apartments.
“The flood protection system protects the residents here against water from above and below – including those who live in basement apartments. Because these walls go up to 20 meters deep into the earth,” explains Ibrahim.
The protective line of flood walls and gates stretches over almost five kilometers. And around the southern tip of Manhattan there is a wall like a big U. Only three years after the start of construction, a coastal park with green spaces and sports facilities is being created.
Other regions threatened
Geophysicist Klaus Jacob is nonetheless skeptical: “This is a solution that could perhaps work until the year 2100,” explains the native of Stuttgart, who has advised the New York Advisory Council on Climate Change and authorities for decades.
But afterward, the rising sea would wash them away, says the Columbia University scientist. Jacob gives the residential areas of the Rockaways peninsula in Queens around 30 years. Parts of Staten Island, the Lower East Side of Manhattan and other areas are also threatened. So his advice is radical: “We’re moving. We’re going to higher ground.”
High regions in New York
People would have to relocate in the long term. New York is fortunate to have relatively high regions. Many parts of the city are high enough above sea level to be safe from the water for several hundred years. “We need to pull together in these high-lying areas of the city,” Jacob continues.
However, she does not like hearing his advice on this matter. Politics is guided by money, says Jacob. And in New York it’s more about short-term solutions than visions.
The German professor has a reputation for predicting superstorm Sandy. In fact, as early as 2011, Jacob warned of the consequences that such a storm of the century could have for the city. With his warnings, he saved the New York public transport company from billions in damage.