Gaza: “Deep-seated feeling of great injustice”

No matter who is ultimately responsible for the rocket strike in Gaza, that will not change the outrage in the Arab states, says Middle East expert Reinicke. What does this mean for Israel – and the entire region?

tagesschau.de: We are speaking at a time when there are indications of how the rocket attack happened, but not yet indubitable proof. From a Western perspective, there is much to be said for the Israeli army’s statement blaming Islamic Jihad. Hamas, on the other hand, speaks of an Israeli attack. In your opinion, how much voice is there left in the Arab world for doubts about Hamas’ portrayal?

Andreas Reinicke: I fear that this actually important question will hardly play a political role anymore. The Arab media and most governments have adopted the interpretation that this is an Israeli attack. This is not the only reason why people are extremely outraged and are on the streets in Ramallah, Amman and elsewhere. Whatever a subsequent investigation brings will no longer be relevant to this outrage.

“Emotions shaped by the occupation in the West Bank”

tagesschau.de: But how do you explain the fact that the Western states’ horror at the Hamas attack on October 7th cannot be detected in the Arab states – despite the kidnapping of hostages, despite the killing of babies and the execution of Holocaust survivors?

Reinicke: To do this, you have to understand the sensitivities of the Arab world, which are very different. With regard to Israel, the emotion is primarily shaped by Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, by disputes and violence by settlers against Palestinians, by attacks on crops, by house demolitions, and also by the ongoing construction of settlements.

This is reported much more widely in the Arab media than in our country and, among many other aspects, has given rise to a deep-seated feeling of great injustice among the Arab population. And this feeling is much more important at the moment than the horror of the images that characterizes us.

In addition, the Arab media generally shows much more explicit images of violence in conflicts than is the case here – for example from Yemen or Syria – so unfortunately these types of images are familiar there.

“Unfortunately you have to expect such events”

tagesschau.de: As long as we do not yet have final certainty, we must also ask what it would mean for Israel if Hamas’s accusation that this was an Israeli rocket attack were correct.

Reinicke: Unfortunately, Israelis have to expect such horrific incidents again and again in a densely populated area like Gaza. Israel strives to attack only military targets. But the distinction between military and civilian is often very difficult. It’s difficult to see from the air. We also know that military targets such as Hamas operations centers are also located in civilian buildings.

Israel tries to attack as few such targets as possible and even has its own legal department for assessing them under international law. But in the current situation, one unfortunately has to expect such terrible events if they are actually attributable to Israel. An event like that in Gaza does not have an impact on the Israeli population, regardless of who is responsible.

That doesn’t make things any easier for Israel, but I suspect that this assessment will also dominate the feeling among the Israeli population – as long as it is not clearly a mistake that can be attributed to the Israeli army.

“Show that Israel is vulnerable”

tagesschau.de: Do you think such events are also part of Hamas’ calculations?

Reinicke: Absolutely – that is Hamas’ calculation. She wants to show the Arab public that Israel is vulnerable, not as dominant as people believed. That’s why this terrible attack is presented as a military success. If Israel invades Gaza and the war is long and costly, Hamas would portray this as another success.

Combined with the expected civilian casualties, it is Hamas’ perfidious plan to use this method to position the Arab populations against their own governments.

tagesschau.de: Israel attributes the rocket attack to “Islamic Jihad.” How do you see its role in the Gaza Strip vis-à-vis Hamas?

Reinicke: “Islamic Jihad” has always been directly supported by Iran. That was less true with Hamas. Both are competitors. But one has to fear that both will act together in this dispute.

However, I can also imagine that the “Jihad” will also launch actions inside or outside Gaza to harm Hamas. At the moment I assume a similar cooperation. This can change again later.

“The problem has exploded”

tagesschau.de: Some states in Israel’s immediate neighborhood have been cooperating with Israel for a long time, others have become closer in recent years. What does that mean for them now?

Reinicke: Israel, Egypt and Jordan signed a peace treaty in 1978. However, at that time the question of the future of the Palestinian territories was left open, with the aim of resolving it as soon as possible. Since that hasn’t happened yet, these governments constantly have potential conflict with their own populations.

Other states such as Sudan, Morocco, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have also called for a solution to this issue, but were prepared to start this process first by establishing relations with Israel and resolve the Palestine issue in the process.

Saudi Arabia, which has been negotiating with the US and Israel with the aim of rapprochement with Israel, has explicitly named a solution to the Palestine issue as a condition for rapprochement. I assume that after these terrible events, the rapprochements will at best be put on hold and, in the worst case, there may even be regression.

“Conflict is not in the interests of governments”

tagesschau.de: The initial reaction of the Arab states to the events was very cautious.

Reinicke: Correct. The Arab League explicitly condemned the terrorist attack for the first time at a special meeting of foreign ministers. It is absolutely not in the interests of Arab governments to have a conflict with Israel now. They have enough to do with promoting the renewal of their societies and solving economic issues. But for the reasons mentioned, they have come under pressure.

tagesschau.de: There is the theory that this was also a target of Hamas in its attacks. Do you share that?

Reinicke: Yes I think so. Because if the agreement with Saudi Arabia had come about, it would have been an important step that would have been difficult to reverse.

Egypt’s balancing act

tagesschau.de: Hamas is close to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, which in turn is persecuted and suppressed there. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi launched a coup against them. Does that make support for Hamas more difficult or is that also on the back burner at the moment?

Reinicke: Gaza has always been a problem for Egypt. Israel would have liked to cede the Gaza Strip to Egypt. Egypt immediately rejected this in the 1990s because it had enough problems of its own and has even more today – with refugees from Sudan, Libya, Syria and of course Palestinians.

In addition, there is a connection between the Muslim Brotherhood and at least Hamas, so there may be fears that the Muslim Brotherhood will be strengthened in their own country. But what some Israelis imagine that Gaza’s population will find a place in Israel is something the Egyptians will never accept, and neither will the Palestinians.

“Wildfire is a possible scenario”

tagesschau.de: Has the risk of a conflagration become even more likely with an event like the rocket strike in Gaza?

Reinicke: A wildfire is at least still a possible scenario. We cannot predict the future, but the attack on the hospital shows how much the Arab population is in turmoil. One can calculate that this will become even stronger with further comparable or even worse events. And the longer such a conflict lasts, the greater the risk of similar incidents and the possibility that Arab populations will demand tougher action from their governments

This can also apply to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has defined itself by fighting Israel. And even if she doesn’t want to, public pressure could force her to intervene. And then we have the West Bank, where there was talk of a possible third intifada weeks ago.

If this also happens, we are very close to a conflagration that could be very dangerous, at least for Israel. And no one can judge whether it affects other governments or regions.

tagesschau.de: Can the US presence prevent a conflagration?

Reinicke: The US presence through the two aircraft carriers can certainly make a conflagration or attack by Hezbollah much more difficult and hopefully deter them. That is a strong signal. But when the pressure is very high, this may not be enough to prevent the fighting from escalating.

The interview was conducted by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de