Gas imports: how dependent Germany is on Russia

What are the consequences of the gas supply stop for Poland and Bulgaria in this country? Is the supply secured? And what happens if Russia also stops deliveries to Germany? The most important questions and answers.

How much natural gas does Germany still get from Russia?

Germany obtains gas from Russia primarily through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which directs the natural gas here through the Baltic Sea. While the share of Russian gas deliveries in Germany was 55 percent last year, it is currently 35 percent according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs. By the end of the year, it is to be reduced to around 30 percent, primarily through the purchase of liquefied natural gas, so-called LNG. By the summer of 2024, the federal government considers a further reduction in the share to ten percent of consumption possible.

Is the gas supply secured in Germany?

Yes and no. It depends on what period of time you are looking at. “The security of supply in Germany is currently guaranteed,” says the Federal Network Agency. “The cessation of Russian gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria has so far had no impact on the security of supply in Germany.” However, a recent report by the Ministry of Economic Affairs to the Bundestag speaks of an “acute danger that the situation will escalate further and that Russian gas suppliers will not fulfill their contractual obligations or will only do so to a limited extent”. This would be critical for the gas supply situation in Germany in the short to medium term. The background is Russia’s demand to process payments in rubles, which the G7 states oppose.

Why is the federal government having such a hard time giving up natural gas from Russia?

The federal government fears far-reaching consequences for the economy, among other things. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has made it clear several times that from Berlin’s point of view, entire branches of industry in Germany would be threatened in such a case. The Ministry of Economic Affairs expects a recession, i.e. a contraction in economic output, if deliveries are stopped.

What happens if Russia also stops deliveries to Germany?

Then the highest level of the gas contingency plan would come into effect, the emergency level. The network agency would then distribute the gas that had become scarce. Certain consumer groups are given special protection by law and should be supplied with gas until the very end if possible. This includes households and social facilities such as hospitals, but also gas-fired power plants that also supply heat or are required to generate electricity.

The first stage of the emergency plan went into effect at the end of March. Since then, a crisis team made up of experts from energy suppliers and representatives of the authorities has kept an eye on the supply situation almost every day. At the same time, the network agency collects data from network operators and soon also from large consumers in order to be able to reduce delivery quantities in an emergency. So Germany is preparing for an emergency.

How does the federal government assess the situation in this country?

According to the federal government, there will be no impact on the security of gas supplies in Germany for the time being. However, the responsible authorities observed the situation in this country very closely. At the moment it is “not necessary” to announce the next stage of the gas emergency plan, said Economics Minister Robert Habeck. According to him, the gas is still flowing into the country as usual. Nevertheless, he cannot rule out that Germany will also be hit. “A demolition of gas supplies at this point in time would drive the German economy into a recession,” said the Green politician. The German energy companies that buy Russian gas, however, behaved in accordance with the contract. They pay in euros, and Gazprombank then converts the money into rubles. The question is whether Russia is enough.

Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner currently sees no indications of a restriction in energy supplies from Russia. “There are no signs that the Russian side will stop deliveries,” he said.

What role do gas storage facilities play in Germany?

The gas storage facilities compensate for fluctuations in gas consumption and thus form a kind of buffer system for the gas market, also in terms of price. The storage tanks are usually well filled when the heating season begins in autumn. The filling levels then decrease until spring. After the storage tanks had historically low filling levels at times last winter, they should be much better filled next winter. A new storage law prescribes this. It should ensure that they are 90 percent full on December 1st. Germany has the largest storage capacities for natural gas in Central and Western Europe. A lot still has to be saved before then: on Monday the filling level was 33.5 percent, and the trend is rising.

What effects could the delivery stop for Poland and Bulgaria have on end consumer prices?

“Further price increases for households are inevitable, even if prices are stagnating,” says Udo Sieverding, the energy expert at the North Rhine-Westphalia consumer advice center. He advises consumers to cut costs: “Save energy like crazy.” Anyone who can should use the summer to reduce consumption in the winter, for example by insulating heating pipes or sealing windows. Craftsmen are easier to find in summer than in winter. He recommended that tenants put money aside for the expected large additional payments. “It can also make sense to increase the discounts during the year.”

In the past, gas also came to Germany via the extension of the Yamal pipeline, which has now been shut down. How important is this pipeline for natural gas supply?

None at the moment. Since around Christmas, no gas has flowed through this pipeline to Germany on most days. Most of the Russian gas flows through Nord Stream 1. The rest comes to Germany via Waidhaus in Bavaria.

How much money flows from Germany to Russia for energy supplies?

How much money for energy supplies flows from Germany to Russia every day cannot be clearly quantified. A look back at the year 2021 can be helpful for an approximate figure: The federal government states that around 61 million euros flowed from Germany to Russia every day for oil, coal and gas in that year.

This total may deviate from the current total for various reasons, for example because the volume of imports was already reduced after the start of the Ukraine war, because prices have changed or because it is possible that the gas volume used for the 2021 calculation may differ part was forwarded to other EU countries. According to estimates by economist Simone Tagliapietra from the Bruegel Economic Institute, the EU spent 15 million euros a day on coal from Russia at the beginning of April, around 400 million euros on Russian gas and 450 million euros on oil from the country.