Hubert Aiwanger draws a circle on the tabletop with his finger, lays the floor in the thought structure with his palm, sets fastening bolts on the left and right. Finished. Such a deposit for hard coal, imported by ship, is technically not a big deal, explains the minister. He’s sitting in a conference room in the state parliament, the session of his free voters is over, now Aiwanger is talking about an issue that has grown into a mega-topic since the war in Ukraine at the latest – and puts him, the economics and energy minister, back in the limelight : energy policy.
For example, coal reserves, says Aiwanger, which have to be brought in and “won’t rot us.” Actually, the coal was dead, the decision was made to phase it out, “ideally” in 2030, according to the federal government’s coalition agreement. But Aiwanger is not someone who thinks in terms of ideals. He is one of those who now call coal “bridging technology”. Too dirty, too inefficient?
It makes sense, he says, in order to quickly become independent of Russian gas. It is said that the agricultural engineer Aiwanger also acts as a politician like a farmer: maximally pragmatic. He is often mocked for it. It’s different now in the crisis – although Aiwanger still speaks like someone who just has to make ends meet for his farm. His fans say: The man is made for this crisis.
Hubert Aiwanger, head of FW, was never gone. And yet one can say: He is back. After the federal elections, when his party clearly missed entering parliament, one could have thought that Aiwanger had crept into a pouty corner. This was also due to the fact that the minister, who had not been vaccinated for a long time, was not allowed to attend press events because of the 2-G rule.
Now he’s vaccinated and it looks a bit like someone put some amphetamines in his syringe. Just how often he has been in the press since the beginning of the war. He convened a task force to secure the economy, brought an extension of the lifespan of nuclear power into play before Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) and advised Berlin and Brussels to fill “the food storage facilities to the ceiling”. He called for a “social year” for everyone, including military service, cheaper fuel for haulage companies and, of course, full coal depots.
Aiwanger has always been busy. Except that all the groundbreaking, company visits or speeches like at the annual conference of the Association for Agricultural Specialist Education in Schwandorf don’t have the media clout like world politics and their consequences for the Free State. And then there is another factor that lures a competitor like Aiwanger out of his reserve: in autumn 2023 there will be an election in Bavaria. Nobody says it officially, but the election campaign has long since begun. Internally, the CSU is positioning itself to attack its main opponent, Aiwanger, from all directions. Is he shaking already?
The CSU missed the first chance to show a more conservative profile
On the contrary, it says in the FW. Aiwanger has noticed that the CSU wants to ensnare its conservative regular audience in the country, he’s wooing for the same audience. The CSU’s previous balance sheet has calmed the FW boss more than worried. For example, the issue of conscription, which the new CSU General Secretary Stephan Mayer ironed out directly. The CSU missed the first chance to show a more conservative profile, one hears from the FW. And that a more conservative CSU, which does not want to scare away the liberal city crowd, cannot be a competitor for the FW, which has always seen itself as a rural party.
CSU boss Söder, it’s no secret, has to deliver in the state elections. Although they in the CSU do not know exactly what result would be a success. Not even 32 percent, as in the federal election, would be a disaster in any case. That was the topic of a key debate in the state parliamentary group recently. Little got out, but one thing did: That MPs, in whose constituencies the FW was surprisingly strong in the federal election and the CSU result melted down, demand strategies from Söder. From 50 to 35 percent as in September – something like that should only have been a slip. What to do against Aiwanger’s party?
Söder’s most recent cabinet reshuffle should ram the first pegs in there: The former Deggendorf District Administrator Christian Bernreiter is now Minister of Construction and Transport, a local political heavyweight who is not only supposed to get a major construction site in the cabinet afloat, but also exude Lower Bavarian hands-on attitude in the Aiwangerian way.
Or Markus Blume, previously Secretary General, now Minister of Science. He is considered a fan of Otto Wiesheu, the CSU’s legendary economics minister. On Söder’s behalf, Blume will “expand the limits of the department widely,” one hears in the CSU. He should occupy high-tech and future topics that Aiwanger neglects, who likes to present himself as a man of the middle class, the gastronomy and the farmers – or as the CSU scoffs: as a tavern minister.
If Söder has his way, Blume should grow a secondary economics minister in the House for Universities and Art, who mercilessly occupies every flank that Aiwanger leaves open. There is talk of the “pliers” Bernreiter/Blume, which is to crush the FW boss. In addition, there is the new CSU General Mayer, whom Söder characterizes as: “rural area, conservative, also Catholic”. Bernreiter, Blume, Mayer: three musketeers for Söder. One for all, all against Aiwanger.
The risk for the CSU: Whoever fights his opponent so much upgrades him. Which can only be right for Aiwanger. His record as a minister is mixed, his shirtsleeves in the gas crisis obscures the view that Bavaria is quite haphazard in energy policy. Seen in this way, it was a clever move that Aiwanger recently fraternized with the man who is currently traveling through the country with an ambitious energy plan: Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (Greens).
After his visit to Munich, almost touching scenes took place. It was a few hours ago that Söder spoke of a “dissent” with Habeck. And what did Aiwanger do when he appeared in front of the cameras with Habeck? He spoke of a “consensus” on the expansion of wind energy. Aiwanger spoke so lovingly about Habeck that one had to fear that he might accompany it with physical tenderness.
He doesn’t want “a one-man show”
For Aiwanger, things are running fairly harmoniously with his own people. A few months ago it was different. When he initially rejected the corona vaccination and dealt with strange arguments, some in the party considered him no longer acceptable. In the meantime, even party friends who aren’t considered Aiwanger admirers are asserting that there are “no aftereffects.” He is the leader, the only true celebrity, the party is simply dependent on Aiwanger grinning from the election poster.
However, rebelliousness slumbers internally, as the FW proposal for the presidential election in January showed. Aiwanger’s preferred candidate failed in the parliamentary group. Rebellion, some cried. And Aiwanger? Showed the deputies a long nose, put up a free voter from Brandenburg, who smoothly brought in a respectable success. This is how one behaves who is aware of his or her sanctity. And this despite the fact that the Free Voters hardly work according to classic hierarchies.
The fact that FW man Fabian Mehring counted his boss when he said that without vaccination it would be difficult for Aiwanger to “perform his office” left those counted cold. “It’s okay,” he said. In general, Aiwanger doesn’t seem bothered by the fact that Mehring keeps stealing the stage from him. It is said about Aiwanger that he even wishes that people shine next to him. He doesn’t want “a one-man show”. A term that was probably chosen deliberately. In the CSU, where Söder rules quite unrestricted, that’s exactly what a number of members had recently called for: an end to the one-man show.
The CSU and FW are still emphasizing the good cooperation in the cabinet, but at some point “maximum harmony,” as one calls it, will crumble. The first beer tent speeches will soon be coming up, after the long break at the folk festival caused by the pandemic. The CSU, which has always claimed sovereignty over beer tents and regulars’ tables, wants to increase its presence in surveys; the FW woodpeckers on these arenas. By then at the latest, the election campaign should be visible to everyone.