François Bayrou, in September 2020. – MEIGNEUX ROMUALD / SIPA
The High Commissioner for Planning, François Bayrou, pleads in a note for a “national pact for demography”, in order to save the French social model. “Ensuring our demographic future” goes through “two ways: having more children or welcoming people from other countries”, writes the former minister, for whom “France will have to use two levers in reasonable proportions which guarantee the maintaining national cohesion ”.
“France undoubtedly needs even more than its neighbors a dynamic demography because its social model relies, for many, on solidarity between the generations”, in particular through the system of financing by distribution of pensions.
“The number of births decreases year after year”
While France has known for several years “a real demographic dynamic”, signs “very worrying” of a “disruption of this dynamic” appear. “The fertility index is declining” – from 2.02 children per woman in 2010 to 1.83 in 2019 – and “the number of births is declining year after year”: 753,000 in 2019 against 818,000 in 2014. “There would be 40 missing 40 to 50,000 births per year to ensure the renewal of generations ”, we read in the note from the High Commission.
“For 2020, the migratory balance is provisionally estimated (at) +87,000 people”, a figure to be compared with the natural balance (births minus deaths) which was 149,000 in 2018 and 140,000 in 2019. In 2020, year marked by Covid-19, the natural balance is estimated at 67,000. “The contribution of migration can help improve the ratio of active-retirees, and therefore the financing capacity of our social systems,” adds François Bayrou.
At the same time, he campaigns for “a demographic ambition in our country”. “The family policy supports the birth rate” and this goes through the reception of early childhood which is “one of the most powerful levers”, on which “additional efforts are to be made”. Just like on housing policies “which allow access to a form of independence” and on “the conditions of access to employment for young people”.