Judging by the election posters, no candidate did well this Sunday. Instead of wildly posting posters on every lamppost, as in Germany, politicians are only allowed to put up their portraits in front of the polling stations. Metal panels have been waiting there for days to be pasted. And on this election Sunday, there is hardly a placard left that hasn’t been torn or scrawled on.
In the Rue des Pyrénées in north-east Paris, incumbent President Emmanuel Macron has lost half his face on his election poster. Someone painted green vampire teeth on his right-wing rival Marine Le Pen. Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left has a painted clown nose. The impression in front of the polling station fits the atmosphere before this first ballot: hardly anyone was enthusiastic about this election campaign.
Macron’s campaign was so short and understated that it was easy to miss. Above all, Le Pen trusted that enough people would be so disappointed in Macron that they would allow her to move into the Élysée out of defiance and frustration. your slogan? “Sans lui”, without him, so the main thing is not Macron. And the left failed to come up with a common candidate. The Green Yannick Jadot and the Socialist Anne Hidalgo are courting the same urban-green voters, neither of them has a chance of entering the runoff. In the week before the election, a remarkable dynamic developed around the left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. But for the third-placed in the polls, time was running out to overtake Le Pen.
Another runoff between Macron and Le Pen is expected
If you leave the election posters on the street behind you, the vote takes on a different seriousness. Densely packed, people are queuing here in the Rue des Pyrénées in a primary school. Between a big papier-mâché tiger and the voting booths. Unlike in Germany, in France no cross is made in the election, but a piece of paper with the name of one of the candidates is put in an envelope. The whole thing ends with a Republican ritual. The election officer, in this case in a shirt and suit, announces after each envelope that is put into the ballot box: “A voté”. Has chosen. He hasn’t experienced such a rush for a long time, says the election officer. But what does that mean? “No idea.”
Only the runoff is certain: President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte on their way to vote in the first round of the presidential elections.
(Photo: Thibault Camus/dpa)
The “silence républicain”, a political day of silence, has been in force in France since Saturday. From midnight on, none of the twelve candidates in the presidential election was allowed to say a single word in public. All the election spots were up, all the speeches were made, all the flyers were distributed. It just has to be chosen.
The right-wing extremist Le Pen is very likely to make it into the runoff, in the last polls she came second behind incumbent Macron (26.5 percent) with 23 percent, well ahead of the left-wing radical Mélenchon (16.5). Then, in two weeks, the French would be faced with the same choice as in 2017: Macron or Le Pen. The difference is that polling institutes and analysts predict Le Pen’s chances of winning this time are significantly greater than they were five years ago. On the one hand, because Macron can no longer embody a new beginning. On the other hand, because Le Pen has further smoothed out her image and for many French people no longer looks like a radical candidate, but like an old acquaintance in the political establishment.
This year, the French media spoke of a “funny” election campaign that was different than ever before, a “Teflon” election campaign in which the issues rolled off in rows without leaving any traces. This is partly due to external circumstances. The resurgence of the pandemic in autumn and the Delta and Omicron virus variants have prevented some meetings. And then, of course, there is this war, Russia’s attack on Ukraine, which has kept the President so busy that he has only had time for one real campaign appearance. At least that’s how the Macron team explains the conspicuous absence of their candidate.
The “flag effect” has fizzled out and the right-wing extremists are benefiting from the issue of purchasing power
Macron understood and sees himself as one of the most important mediators in the war, the Élysée informed about repeated and always unsuccessful telephone calls between the French and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Initially, this raised his poll numbers significantly, but the “flag effect” has now fizzled out. At the same time, Le Pen’s proximity to the Kremlin appears to be doing her less harm than one might have thought. On the contrary, especially in the last few weeks, the right-wing extremist, who is booming and cheerful, has experienced a clear upswing. Surely many who see the other right-wing extremist, Éric Zemmour, drop in the polls are now switching to their camp. But she also has the advantage of addressing the issue of declining purchasing power, which is currently a major concern for the French, very early on.
Marine Le Pen chose Hénin-Beaumont. Despite being close to the Kremlin for a long time, the right-wing extremists have recently experienced an upswing in the polls.
(Photo: JB Autissier/IMAGO/PanoramiC)
Voter turnout remains an unknown, a very big issue in France because it is used to measure the republican spirit, so to speak. So not those who participate are counted, but those who stay away. Up to 30 percent has been predicted, up from 28.4 percent in 2002 in the shock election that put Jean-Marie Le Pen in the lead. By midday on Sunday, 25.48 percent of registered voters had voted, three percent less than in 2017 at the same time. The French “no longer recognize themselves in the interplay of our country’s institutions,” complains political scientist Arnaud Benedetti. The technical term for this is “de-republicanization.” It’s hard to say who would benefit or suffer from low turnout, but the general rule of thumb is that higher turnout tends to benefit the political extreme.