Emmanuel Macron has won the French presidential election. But now the real work begins. A divided country has to be reunited – and the next elections are just around the corner.
Thunderous applause erupted on the Champs de Mars in Paris when newly crowned election winner Emmanuel Macron took the podium on Sunday evening. Thousands of his supporters have gathered in the square in front of the Eiffel Tower in hopes that their president will win. After the first projection, relief is literally written all over their faces. “Thank you! Thank you, dear friends!” Macron shouted into the sea of beaming faces and French flags.
“Great victory, great challenges” is the headline in the French daily “Le Figaro” the day after. For many, the election statistics left a stale aftertaste. Macron won 58.5 percent against the right-wing populist Marine Le Pen (41.5 percent) in the runoff, making him the first French president in twenty years fought for his second term in office, but his lead was much narrower than in the last duel in 2017 – also because many left-wing voters refused to vote for him.
The highest abstention rate in a presidential election in half a century (around 28 percent) reveals a growing political disappointment – and shows how much work lies ahead of the new old president.
Can Macron reunite divided France?
In his celebratory victory speech, Macron said the French had opted for “a more independent France and a stronger Europe”. His victory can be seen as a reward for his skills as a politician and decision-maker. Although Macron’s popularity, which triggered a storm of enthusiasm in 2017, has steadily declined in recent years, economic growth accelerated under his leadership and the country was also able to cope comparatively well with the corona pandemic. Since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, he has also been able to make a name for himself as a statesmanlike mediator in the European Union.
But the historically good result for the Le Pen right also proves that ideas about France’s future are dividing the country. Over the past two decades, a growing proportion of French people have embraced Le Pen’s nationalist policies despite, or perhaps because of, their hostility towards immigrants and their skepticism about European institutions. Fed up with traditional politicians, many working class people feel abandoned by globalization, digitization and the decline of unions. With them, Le Pen and her party “Rassemblement National” (RN) find open ears.
A look at the geographic distribution of voters completes the picture: Le Pen has scored well in metropolitan areas and smaller rural towns, particularly on the Mediterranean coast and in the north. Right where many frustrated working-class women and men live. Macron’s strongholds, on the other hand, are the metropolises, including Paris (with a full 70 percent lead), Marseille, Lyon and Toulouse – where people tend to be better off, socially more liberal and more cosmopolitan.
In addition to the urban-rural divide, the age distribution also played a decisive role: Macron has his second presidency according to the Ipsos post-election polls above all thanks to the oldest and youngest voters. He performed best among people over 70 by far – his second best result was among the very young under 25. However, many younger people said they only checked Macron to prevent Le Pen, and thus that to choose “lesser evils”. Le Pen himself, on the other hand, was able to attract middle-aged French people in particular, with the 50 to 59-year-olds being their strongest constituency.
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With his promise to heal France’s “doubts and divisions,” Macron is expected to quickly address one of the key issues that has prompted more than 40 percent of voters to vote for his right-wing populist opponent: the issue of purchasing power and the issues that come with it associated standard of living, which many are increasingly concerned about in the face of massive inflation. Economics Minister Bruno Le Maire immediately confirmed in an interview with “Europe 1” on Monday that Macron’s second term would be different. “We can message that one [Wähler] sent, don’t forget. We have to change the way we govern,” he promised.
For the president, this means redesigning his previously liberal – and sometimes opportunistic – domestic policy with a social and green focus. With energy prices soaring, Macron’s top priority will be to put together a new package of support for French consumers — including measures to increase pensions and some social benefits, extend energy subsidies, and ensure tax-free bonuses for workers. A “purchasing power law” is to come in the summer, which, among other things, is intended to increase pensions.
Economics Minister Le Maire also announced an adjustment to the fuel subsidies as an immediate measure. “We will keep support on fuel prices as prices are still very high,” he said. However, this support should be “more efficient” and primarily benefit those who rely on their car and have lower incomes.
Macron, on the other hand, has postponed one of his most controversial plans until the fall: raising the statutory retirement age to 64 or 65. In the first attempt, however, there was already massive resistance, with a view to the age distribution of his electorate, things are likely to be tricky this time too.
post vote is pre vote
But even the best agenda is of little value in France without the decisive majorities in parliament. The run-off election may not have been 24 hours ago, but neither Macron nor Le Pen has much time to celebrate and lick wounds. Political attention is already focused on the parliamentary elections on June 12 and 19. The election of the National Assembly is likely to be Macron’s first major test by fire, as it will determine how much leeway the president will have to further pursue his domestic political agenda.
So far, Macron’s coalition, consisting of his own party “La République en Marche” (LREM), the liberal centrists called “MoDem” and “Agir”, a split from bourgeois Republicans, has had a strong majority of 345 seats. However, many doubt Macron will receive the same overwhelming majority as in 2017, when the political upstart swept into office on a wave of enthusiasm. Now Macron must do everything possible to secure a majority of at least 289 MPs.
His biggest opponent is likely to be leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose supporters only voted for Macron in the runoff to prevent Le Pen. Mélenchon now wants to take advantage of the momentum of frustration over the “plague or cholera” election and mobilize left-wing forces against Macron. His party “La France Insoumise” (LFI) has already entered into alliance negotiations with the Greens and the Communists.
In the right-wing camp, on the other hand, despite Le Pen’s combative appearance, there is currently no sign of an alliance between the two wings. The far-right ex-candidate Eric Zemmour had called for an electoral alliance the night before, but not without the smug comment “that the name Le Pen is associated with defeat for the eighth time”. RN Vice President Louis Aliot then complained that Zemmour should “get off his high horse”. “I don’t see how there could be an alliance with Reconquete (Zemmour’s party),” he said.
Emmanuel Macron also knows that his victory in the runoff election was just the beginning. So it’s no wonder that the President himself didn’t feel like celebrating on the evening of his re-election. “Have a party, I’m going back to work,” he said to his employees after his speech in front of the sparkling Eiffel Tower.
Sources: “Le Figaro“, “Phoenix“, “NYTimes“, “The time“, “Ipsos“, with AFP footage