who at Macron’s New Year speech listened carefully could already get a foretaste of what will occupy the country in the coming weeks. The words “work” and “work” appeared 17 times in Macron’s speech. “We will have to work longer,” said the French President, for example, and: “I hope that we can create a stronger France through our work and our commitment.”
After several failed attempts, Macron finally wants to tackle the project this year, which is considered the most important and sensitive of his second term: the reform of the French pension system. Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne is due to present the main features of the reform next Tuesday. The government intends to implement the plans by the summer.
The opposition and the trade unions have been campaigning against the reform for weeks. Many professional groups fear for their privileges, for example the drivers of the Paris public transport company RATP, who could previously retire at the age of 52. In a representative survey by the television broadcaster BFM almost three quarters of those surveyed recently spoke out against the government’s reform plans.
First the yellow vests intervened, then Corona
Macron has long carried the pension reform with him as a campaign promise. He actually wanted to simplify the complicated French pension system during his first term in office. But then he had to postpone the project several times: first the yellow vests intervened, then Corona.
During his first term in office, Macron’s reform plans sounded very ambitious: he wanted to fundamentally change the French pension system, combine the 42 different state pension funds and set up a points system. His current project has little to do with it. In the meantime, Macron is primarily concerned with gradually raising the retirement age, from the current 62 years to an expected 65 years in 2031. “This is the only way we can manage to maintain the financing of our pensions,” said Macron in his New Year’s speech. In addition, Macron wants to increase the minimum pension to 1,200 euros. It is not yet clear whether this measure will only apply to future pensioners or – as Macron had promised during the election campaign – also to current pensioners.
In contrast to Macron’s first term, another important point has changed: unlike then, Macron’s government no longer has an absolute majority in the National Assembly. In order to push through the reform, she is dependent on votes from the opposition – and so far she sees little advantage in supporting Macron and his government in their unpopular project.
Both left and right are blocking the reform
The parliamentary group leader of the radical left La France Insoumise, Mathilde Panot, had already announced in December that her party wanted to prevent the government’s plans at any price, “be it in parliament or on the street”. Your party colleague Jean-Luc Mélenchon tweeted after Macron’s New Year’s speech: “January will be hot.” On January 21, the party wants to organize a “march for our pensions” in Paris.
There is also little support from the other opposition parties. The left is “united” against the government’s plans, said Socialist leader Olivier Faure last week. Marine Le Pen, who leads her far-right Rassemblement National as parliamentary group leader, has also announced that she intends to block the reform in parliament.
So far, the government has hoped for the votes of conservative Republicans. After all, in the past they already had pensions from the age of 65 in their election platform. Nevertheless, it is not certain that Macron can count on the votes of these MPs. The new party leader, Eric Ciotti, said recently that he was ready to vote for a “just reform”. However, he considers the increase in the retirement age to 65 to be “brutal”.
Retirement at 65? Or at 64?
When the government presents its plans this week, it will become clear whether the government will continue to adhere to the retirement age of 65 or whether it will agree to a compromise of 64 years. Emmanuel Macron has made it clear several times in recent months that this point of the reform is actually non-negotiable for him. Prime Minister Borne, who is responsible for talks with the opposition and the trade unions, was more willing to compromise. Retirement at 65 is “not sacred,” she said last week.
Should the Republicans also vote against the reform plans in the end, Macron will still have the controversial paragraph 49-3 of the French constitution. This makes it possible for the government to pass legislative projects without parliament. Macron’s government has used this paragraph ten times in the past six months.
The maneuver is not without risk: every time the government pulls the paragraph, the opposition can table a motion of no confidence and overthrow the government with a majority in parliament. So far, the motions against Macron’s government have not been successful because the Republicans have not voted. If, in the case of the pension reform, there is a majority of MPs in favor of a motion of no confidence, Macron’s ministers would have to resign. Macron has already threatened that if he did, he would dissolve the National Assembly and call new parliamentary elections.
The head of France’s largest trade union, the CFDT, Laurent Berger, reiterated last weekend that he would never be able to retire at the age of 64 or 65. Should the reform be implemented in the form envisaged so far, he and other union representatives will call for protests. Last Saturday, the yellow vests returned to several French cities. At the peak of the movement five years ago, there were at times more than 200,000 people demonstrating across the country. Now the French Interior Ministry counted almost 5,000 demonstrators. The current protest is still comparatively restrained.