Incumbent Emmanuel Macron apparently won the first round in the battle for the Élysée Palace more clearly than expected. According to initial projections, the French President was ahead of his far-right rival Marine Le Pen on Sunday evening with 28.1 percent of the vote, who received 23.3 percent. The radical left Jean-Luc-Mélenchon dropped out in third place, despite winning more votes than expected, 20.3 percent.
The election was a disaster for France’s established right and left, who had ruled the country for decades until 2017: the top candidate Valérie Pecresse of the Gaullist-conservative “Les Républicains” (LR) and Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, the Socialist candidate, landed lagged behind just under or even well under ten percent of the votes.
The first round of the presidential election was only a preliminary decision on the fundamental direction of France. The decision on the country’s future course will be made on April 24 when the runoff between Macron and LePen is due. Macron must worry about the low turnout on Sunday: more than a quarter of all voters (26.5 percent) refused to vote. Five years ago, four percent more French people went to the polls.
In 2017, Macron clearly won the duel against Le Pen with a two-thirds majority. This time, polls predict the incumbent president will only narrowly defeat Le Pen with about 53 percent of the vote
Macron wants to continue as planned
Macron had announced before the election that he would essentially continue his previous policy. During his first term in office, the 44-year-old social liberal repeatedly advocated a deepening of the European Union and promoted the liberalization of the French economy. Despite challenges from right and left, he stuck to his announcement during the election campaign that he would raise the retirement age to 65.
Le Pen, on the other hand, is Eurosceptic, but has recently stopped repeating her earlier plan to have France leave the currency union by referendum. She propagates a tough course against immigrants and wants to limit a number of social benefits to French people.
Up until the beginning of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine in February, Le Pen had expressed clear sympathy for Moscow’s President Vladimir Putin. They want to limit the common defense policy in the EU as well as armament projects with Germany. She also wants to withdraw France from the military integration of NATO. draw. Observers in Brussels and Berlin fear that Le Pen’s election will “throw Europe into a deeper crisis than Brexit.”
Le Pen benefited from the fact that far-right publicist Éric Zemmour, as a candidate, had spread even more radical theses. According to projections, Zemour came to 7.2 percent on Sunday. Observers expect that many of his supporters will vote for Le Pen in the second ballot. The former journalist had polemicized against refugees and Jews. Thus, Le Pen appeared as “more moderate.”
Le Pen bet on concerns about price increases
Le Pen, on the other hand, recently focused her election campaign on the loss of purchasing power of many French people with low incomes. In France, too, the prices for food and petrol had risen significantly since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
Many of his compatriots see Macron more as a pupil of the Parisian elite. To strengthen purchasing power, Macron has promised every employee a bonus of up to 6,000 euros if he is re-elected. The government had previously capped electricity and gas prices. After the first ballot, it will be important for the president to mobilize voters on the left and supporters of the more bourgeois Republicans.
Critics accuse the incumbent president of having underestimated Le Pen’s new challenge for too long. Five years ago, Macron had defeated the right-wing extremists with a two-thirds majority in the second ballot. This time, pollsters are predicting that the race could be much tighter: last forecast before Sunday predicted a lead of just 53 to 47 percent.