France
Cat content and market appearances – Marine Le Pen seizes power with a new image
Marine Le Pen seeks closeness to voters
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Compared to 2017, Le Pen’s positions have been softened, at least on the surface. The candidate has completely changed her image. The demagogue became the “nice right next door”.
In France, the official election campaign ended on Friday. In all polls, two candidates are ahead: President Emmanuel Macron and right-wing populist Marine Le Pen. So far, that’s not surprising. But Marine Le Pen was able to catch up enormously and for the first time has a real chance to seize power.
In the last polls from Friday, the incumbent is still ahead. But that only applies to the first ballot. If no candidate receives an absolute majority of the votes in the first round, the top two candidates will meet in a runoff in 14 days. Then, in all probability, Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron would fight a duel. In one of the most recent polls, Macron is just ahead of his rival, who has 48 percent, with 52 percent in the second ballot. The poll results for the run-off election are always less reliable than those for the first ballot. The second round is not decided by the regular voters of the candidates, but by the voters of the candidates who lost in the first ballot, and their decision is more of a tactical nature.
France election: Le Pen on the upswing
A four percent lead would be enough for Macron if this uncertainty were not there. And if Marine Le Pen hadn’t caught up significantly in recent weeks. A month ago she was 10 points behind President Macron and fighting for a place in the second round. The poll results for Le Pen and Macron in the first round are far worse than the data for the runoff. This shows how much both depend on the voters of the eliminated candidates. In a poll by OpinionWay-Kéa published on Thursday, Macron received 26 percent of the vote, up from 28 percent a week ago. Le Pen climbs two points to 22 percent. So in just one week, the incumbent fell two points and the challenger rose by the same amount. If this trend continues, Marine Le Pen has a real chance in the runoff.
President’s social coldness
After his very controversial term in office, Macron is no longer the youthful beacon of hope – think of the yellow vest protests. Above all, however, he meets a new Marine Le Pen. Le Pen analyzed her defeat in 2017 and drew conclusions from it. For your party and for your own image. In doing so, she tries to shed the bully image of the right-wing populists. Today she seems more mature, more self-confident and less extreme – in short, more presidential. The right-wing extremist candidate Éric Zemmour, of all people, helped her. Compared to him, Le Pen’s positions seem comparatively moderate. Zemmour threw out his pro-Putin sentiments after the start of the war in Ukraine, and Le Pen is now benefiting from that. In terms of content, Le Pen has shelved the points that scare voters. A sudden departure from the EU, for example. Instead, she focused on the financial situation of the voters. Macron has not found a remedy for the social crisis during his presidency. The sometimes brutal police action against the social protests has further strengthened his image as a candidate for the elite. Two voices can illustrate the problem. Melina, a nursing assistant, told the BBC at President Macron’s election rally in Spézet that the economic situation has changed her attitude towards politics. “There are a lot of French people here who work but are forced to sleep in their cars because they can’t afford housing and nobody helps them. It’s a shame. I used to vote left, but this time I could very well vote right Select.”
Sophie, a bakery waitress, told the broadcaster she voted for Macron five years ago because she was “scared” of Marine Le Pen. Today she is no longer afraid. “She’s evolved. She’s learning from her mistakes. She’s more human and we understand her when she speaks.”
At home with Le Pen
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Marine Le Pen: “One of us”
Le Pen reinvented himself. The sometimes clumsy demagogue has become “One of Us”. Marine Le Pen talks about her private life, can now easily strike up a conversation with normal people and cuddles with her cat. The hectic speaker who holds on to the lectern and script has become a sovereign campaigner who seeks contact with voters on the streets and markets. And it looks very human compared to the unapproachable Macron. Le Pen says her strategy was to “de-demonize” herself and her party. And it hits Emmanuel Macron at his most sensitive point. Macron comes from the French political establishment through and through. He embodies the rule of the Parisian elites. Le Pen, on the other hand, successfully poses as a woman of the people. “Marine Le Pen seems more likeable than Emmanuel Macron,” admitted Pierre Person, an MP for the president’s party, with concern.
Le Pen has learned to address working-class French directly by showing a simple life that is not so different from the life of her own followers, according to Jean-Yves Camus, director of the Observatory of Radical Politics and an expert on Ms. Le Pen Party, Rassemblement National, the magazine “Politico”. And with success, “The question is whether it sounds fake or real,” said Camus. “And it sounds real to me.”
The runoff, however, will depend heavily on turnout, which could be as high as 73 percent, five points lower than in 2017. 25 and 30 percent of the French have yet to make up their minds at all, and Le Pen and her party have been regulars in past elections performed worse than before in the polls.