We had to wait three decades. Three decades of procrastination around the main cause of global warming: fossil fuels. The UN climate negotiations, meeting at the 28th climate conference in Dubai (COP28), have finally produced a text of which every word has been fiercely negotiated. This agreement therefore calls on the world to “transition away” from fossil fuels.
The fact remains that the text mentions all fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal) but does not speak of “phase out” (gradual elimination), a term demanded for months by a hundred countries and thousands of NGOs but which was serves as a red flag for certain oil-producing states, in particular. For Dave Jones of Ember’s Global Insights Lead, the agreement adopted by more than 200 countries at COP28 “marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.” But analysts also point out that it has shortcomings. 20 minutes gives you the main points to remember.
Tackle all fossil fuels
The text adopted Wednesday morning states that the world must “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a fair, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this crucial decade, in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 in accordance with scientific recommendations.
If UN climate negotiations have mentioned fossil fuels in the past, it has been to call for a phase-out of “inefficient” subsidies. Tackling all fossil fuels, which account for about three-quarters of all human-caused emissions, is “unprecedented in this process,” said David Waskow, director of international climate action at World Resources Institute.
Another positive point, observers say, is the call for acceleration “in this decade.” This deadline is crucial given that, according to the IPCC, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by almost half by 2030 to avoid exceeding 1.5°C of warming, the most ambitious objective of the Paris agreement. They expressed concern, however, that the call to abandon fossil fuels only concerned the energy sector and did not refer to plastics and polluting fertilizers.
Triple the capacity of renewable energies
In detail, the Dubai text calls for “tripling the capacity of renewable energies globally and doubling the global average annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030”. At the start of the negotiations, more than 130 countries had signed a voluntary commitment to this effect, but observers believe that their inclusion in the main decision text of COP28 is essential.
Momentum for this goal has been growing, not least because of the dramatic increase in renewable energy capacity in recent years.
In September, the G20 – responsible for around 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions – started the movement by approving the objective of tripling the capacity of renewable energies by the end of the decade. The IEA has forecast that global demand for oil, gas and coal is expected to peak this decade thanks to “dramatic” growth in cleaner energy and electric cars. “For the first time, the world has recognized the scale of ambition required this decade to build the new clean energy system,” analyzes Dave Jones.
Tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency improvements “are the most important actions likely to lead to a rapid reduction in fossil fuels this decade,” he said.
And what about coal?
It was at the Glasgow climate conference two years ago that negotiators first tried to secure a deal to stop burning fossil fuels, with a focus on coal. The participants then decided to gradually reduce electricity production from coal without resorting to carbon emissions capture technologies. A wording kept by the Dubai negotiators. Coal is the dirtiest fossil fuel, but it is also a pillar of many energy systems in developing economies, including India and China.