Depending on how this fight for the World Championship in Formula 1 will end, the way the two teams will get to the starting grid will most likely still have to be discussed after the gunpowder smoke has long since cleared. And when it becomes clear whether Lewis Hamilton, 36, will have crowned himself world champion for the eighth time, or Max Verstappen, 24, for the first time. Because when the pilots get to the starting blocks on this Sunday in Abu Dhabi, all the ingredients will be ready to simmer a grandiose finale that this passionate season has undoubtedly deserved.
Verstappen moved into pole position at the big season finale with a fabulous lap in qualifying that hardly anyone had expected him to do the day before. It is the 13th fastest time in his Formula 1 career, and one can add with great certainty: the most important of his life, guaranteed. Behind him is Hamilton, who was almost four tenths slower than Verstappen on his fastest harbor tour. That the Dutchman will race off on Sunday with the fastest and softest tire compound, while Hamilton on the medium-hard, slower, but more durable tire – that was not the intention of Red Bull. But it is a nice catalyst for the start-up spectacle that is now to be expected : Verstappen has the better position, Hamilton the better tires.
As if that weren’t enough: when the traffic lights go out, both pilots are initially on their own. Verstappen’s adjutant Sergio Perez is fourth behind Lando Norris in the McLaren. Hamilton’s helper Valtteri Bottas is sixth.
On paper, Red Bull’s increase in speed in 24 hours looks ludicrous
The seven-time world champion looked anything but happy after qualifying, at the subsequent press conference he mumbled more than he spoke. But at least he had kept his quick wittedness. Because when the stately number of Dutch people who had come to the home straight gave him loud boos, Hamilton said he was “grateful to see the people here healthy”. Verstappen, on the other hand, was celebrated accordingly, he was pleased with “a great feeling” and said: “We were able to improve the car in time for qualifying.” You could say that.
Sometimes the development of a car from the first few outings on Friday to the race on Sunday seems like a magic trick to the observers. In truth, the speed depends on many factors: Did the engineers configure the car in such a way that it travels as quickly as possible on one lap? Or is it rather adjusted so that it rolls the fastest and most endurance over the entire race distance? In any case, Red Bull’s increase in speed within 24 hours looks absurd on paper: On Friday, Verstappen was still an impressive 0.641 seconds slower than Hamilton in the Mercedes in the second free practice session. “That was okay,” said Hamilton, still audibly satisfied. But Verstappen’s statement gave food for thought. For one lap, he said, he was a little lacking in speed. Viewed from a distance, however, they are excellent on the road.
All the more astonishing that Red Bull found the blueprint for a quick lap the day after. Anyone who looked closely and listened was amazed on Friday evening at the wonderful mood of team boss Christian Horner, which at first glance did not seem to fit the scary times.
World champion, even if his Red Bull and Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes crashed: Max Verstappen would be enough to win the title if both were out – because he won nine races, his competitor eight.
(Photo: Antonin Vincent / PanoramiC / imago)
Until the beginning of the last qualifying round, it still looked as if Verstappen had no realistic chance of setting the fastest time. In the first run, Hamilton turned his lap almost five tenths faster. In the second part, Verstappen fought his way down to four thousandths. During this attempt, however, he caught a brake plate. The rubber that is put on in Q2 is also the one that the drivers have to roll into the race on Sunday. This is what the regulations say. And because Verstappen no longer had a medium-hard alternative model on the shelf, he switched to the fast-paced mixture. Whether he will roll into the grand finale with these got to or board maythat remains to be seen. The different tires from Hamilton and Verstappen are a small detail that could still develop enormous force.
The longest World Cup in history could already be decided in the first corner
And one more little thing was irritating in the last qualifying of the season. Red Bull let Verstappen cruise in the slipstream of Perez on his fastest lap. Hamilton, however, was completely on his own. Ultimately, it was so much slower than its competitor that this could not be explained by aerodynamic disadvantages alone. But why Mercedes didn’t even try to gain an advantage in this way was not cleared up on Saturday. No, they hadn’t discussed this option beforehand, said Hamilton: “Max put in a great lap. We just couldn’t keep up. I couldn’t have gone faster on my last attempt.”
It actually looks like this: The race and this longest world championship in history with 22 races could already be decided in the first corner. With a crash or without. In any case, Hamilton has to cross the finish line before Verstappen on the way to the title. It would be enough for Verstappen if both failed – because he won nine races and Hamilton eight. But does the Brit manage to catch up on the starting grid on the 200 meters or so to the first braking point? Then it could spread out on the inside at the first bend, which leads to the left. Verstappen, rolling off the right side of the tarmac, will pull to the left and hold against it with tires faster than Hamilton’s.
The strategy of Mercedes should therefore be to stay out of a crash in the first corner. And then overtaking later with more robust tires. “Clearly 1-0 for Red Bull,” congratulated team boss Toto Wolff. “But we have a few game variants in terms of strategy because they definitely have to change earlier.” So then, curtain up.