As of: 08/17/2021 8:45 a.m.
Decades of commitment undone in just a few days: In the EU, the situation in Afghanistan is stunned. The Foreign Ministers meet today. But what room for maneuver does the EU still have?
The mood is likely to be depressed when Europe’s foreign ministers get together in the afternoon. The feeling of experiencing a terrible debacle unites everyone. And the bitter realization that there was basically nothing to oppose the triumphant advance of the Islamist Taliban.
In any case, Federal Foreign Minister Heiko Maas was self-critical yesterday: “There is nothing to gloss over. We, all federal governments, the intelligence services, the international community – we have misjudged the situation.” The intelligence services have failed, as you can see in several countries.
“No military defeat”
One is stunned before the collapse of the Afghan government – although NATO has done almost nothing for years than to train the 300,000-man army and equip it with modern weapons. But the defeat was not a military one at all, that is the analysis of the security policy expert Johannes Varwick: “Of course a well-equipped army of 300,000 men against 70,000 to 80,000 Taliban would have had a military chance. But the Afghan armed forces have decided not to fight and that has to do with the fact that they expect a political situation where they cannot win in the long run. “
Varwick teaches international relations at the University of Halle-Wittenberg. The West underestimated the fact that the Taliban definitely have popular support. And the support for the Afghan armed forces broke away with the decision of NATO to withdraw the troops:
“On this basis they decided that a fight is not worthwhile in order to play any role in a future Afghan order. It will be very difficult, but a hopeless fight with many dead and wounded would have been even more difficult. And that was it Weighing up, “says the expert.
Against the time
In the crisis meeting, the foreign ministers want to discuss the evacuation of Europeans from Afghanistan. Embassy staff should be flown out as quickly as possible, and they want to work together. Important from a German point of view: the local staff. Interpreters, craftsmen, informants – Afghans who have supported the Bundeswehr or non-governmental organizations for years. Other countries have long since brought more local workers to safety, say critics. Now the time is running out.
In fact, it is completely unclear how many evacuation planes can land in Kabul at all. Political scientist Varwick says the fact that the federal government has long hesitated to get the local staff out could have consequences.
“This will mean that Germany will naturally have a confidence problem in future missions, wherever they will take place. If word gets around that the Germans are insecure cantonists who cannot be relied on, then it will be very, very difficult To get local staff in future assignments. “
Looking for a strategy for a new refugee movement
The pictures of the airport in Kabul, where people are desperately trying to get out, give an impression of the refugee movement that is to come. President Emmanuel Macron announced yesterday that France is welcoming people under threat, calling human rights defenders, artists and journalists.
But what about the many others who want to go to Europe? As many as possible should be accepted beforehand, in Afghanistan’s neighboring countries. The foreign ministers should look for a common strategy, that is the requirement from Berlin and Paris.