As of: 09/30/2021 12:29 p.m.
According to the Federal Statistical Office, the number of people of retirement age will rise to 20 million by 2035. The consequences for the labor market: in just a few years, more people will be leaving the labor market than new ones.
In Germany there will be significantly more people of retirement age by 2035. The number of people aged 67 and over will increase by 22 percent between 2020 and 2035 – from 16 million to an expected 20 million, according to the Federal Statistical Office.
According to the prognosis, the western regions are particularly badly affected. Here the experts expect an increase of 25 percent. In the eastern German states, where the population is on average significantly older than in the west, an increase of only 13 to 14 percent is expected.
Negative consequences for the labor market
In city-states like Berlin, there is likely to be an increase of twelve to 13 percent. “However, the population here is on average younger than in the larger states,” say the statisticians.
Increasing aging also has economic consequences. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the peak in employment with almost 46 million people in work is likely to be exceeded in 2023. After that, more people are likely to leave working life than new ones.
According to the IfW, Germany will lose around 130,000 people of working age annually from 2026 onwards. The result: the possible increase in economic output with normal capacity utilization is likely to be just under 0.9 percent at the end of 2026, while the long-term average has so far been 1.4 percent.
Economists see an opportunity in immigration
According to economists, however, this effect could be dampened by higher immigration. In addition, better childcare could help increase the participation of mothers in the labor force.
Ifo President Clemens Fuest also proposes the abolition of spouse splitting, which could create around 50,000 additional full-time positions. More flexible working time models could also help to attract more people to the labor market.