Following the conviction of Donald Trump by the jurors of the New York court, Tristan Cabello, historian and political scientist, lecturer at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, looks at the consequences of such a verdict for Americans. It also analyzes the position of Joe Biden who will face Donald Trump during a first debate in June with a view to the presidential election.
From a global point of view, how are Americans experiencing the announcement of this verdict and this trial?
The trial itself did not captivate America. Too long, too complex, despite intense media coverage by 24-hour news channels. However, the verdict has awakened the attention of Americans: everyone is talking about it. Most did not expect Donald Trump to be convicted on all counts. It is a monumental shock: for the first time in the history of the country, a candidate from one of the two major parties is a habitual offender.
Do you think this could divide America even more?
Yes, this will undoubtedly further divide America, polarizing voters around the figure of Donald Trump. However, it is also likely that this will keep a large portion of voters away from the polls. Joe Biden does not arouse great enthusiasm. Donald Trump, for his part, repels many Americans. The election is far from over. This verdict does not disqualify the former president; his camp remains mobilized. If Joe Biden’s camp continues to be so demobilized, Donald Trump could win in November.
In your opinion, how will this translate into the ballot box?
This is the great unknown. Hard to say. This will probably galvanize Donald Trump’s base, but it remains a minority in the country. You’d think some independents would move away from Donald Trump, but Joe Biden isn’t generating much enthusiasm either. This election will be played out at the margins, with a few votes and in a few states. At this time, it is impossible to predict what will happen in November. This will be decided by very few things.
Can Joe Biden ride this court decision?
This is an advantage for Joe Biden. During the debate at the end of June, he will be able to present himself against a condemned candidate, while he will have consolidated his international stature with sequences such as the commemorations of the landing in France. But Joe Biden’s candidacy remains fragile: half of those under 30 see no difference between the two candidates, and this youth is demobilized by his handling of the Palestinian question. This conviction might not benefit Donald Trump, but if it benefits Joe Biden, it will also be marginally.