Status: 05/13/2022 10:51 a.m
Grain import prices rose more in March than they had in more than a decade because of the war in Ukraine. Because of Russia’s attack, millions of tons are missing from the world market.
The Federal Statistical Office announced today that import prices for grain rose by almost 54 percent in March compared to the same month last year. According to the statisticians, there was an even higher rate of change in May 2011 with a plus of 74 percent compared to May 2010.
“The war in Ukraine has an impact on the global grain supply and grain prices,” said the Federal Office. The price increases ran through all types of grain: in March 2022, wheat rose by a good 65 percent compared to the same month last year, barley, rye, oats also by around 65 percent and corn by 37 percent.
More expensive even before the war
In order to classify the unusually high increase, however, the experts also point out that the prices for imported grain had already risen significantly before the Ukraine war. Since January 2021, the monthly rates of change compared to the same month last year have been “consistently in the double-digit range,” the statisticians note.
Also compared to the import prices as a whole, the development of the wheat price shows a particularly fast pace. In March 2022 they were a good 31 percent higher than in March 2021. But there is also a rapid increase here: there was last a higher year-on-year change in September 1974 during the first oil crisis.
War in Ukraine amplifies price development
According to the Federal Office, there are many reasons for the price increase: high global demand and a shortage of supply due to poor weather conditions in important growing countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia and South America, high fertilizer prices and rising transport and energy costs. The Ukraine war also increased the price increase.
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Ukraine is currently stuck with almost 25 million tons of grain. “It is an almost grotesque situation that we are seeing in Ukraine at the moment,” said FAO expert Josef Schmidhuber. The amount of grain could actually be exported, “but cannot leave the country simply because of the lack of infrastructure and the blockade of the ports”.
Find alternative routes
That is why the EU Commission wants to find new export routes over land. Since the blockade of the ports is threatening global food safety, “there is an urgent need to create alternative logistics routes,” the EU Commission said yesterday. The Brussels authority relies on trucks and freight trains.
Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine was exporting 4.5 million tons of agricultural products a month through its ports. That corresponds to twelve percent of the world’s wheat, 15 percent of the corn requirement and 50 percent of the sunflower oil.
Every single scoop of grain from Ukraine on the world market helps to alleviate hunger, especially in the Global South. Therefore, these measures must be implemented as quickly as possible, demanded the SPD MEP Maria Noichl.
Varying levels of self-sufficiency
Last year, more than eleven million tons of grain were imported into Germany, as the statistics office further announced. The main countries of origin for wheat, which makes up a good third of all grain imports, were the Czech Republic, Poland and France, with a combined share of more than 70 percent.
Although Ukraine and Russia are major global grain exporters, they only play a minor role in German imports. In 2021, only 1.9 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, of grain imports to Germany came from the two countries. Germany exported 11.7 million tons of grain last year.
A good 42 million tons of grain were harvested in Germany in 2021, around half of which was wheat. According to the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE), the degree of self-sufficiency of grain varies greatly: it is very high, for example, for soft wheat at 125 percent or barley at 113 percent.
On the other hand, grain maize (59 percent) or durum wheat (15 percent), which is required for pasta production, among other things, have a lower degree of self-sufficiency. If the degree of self-sufficiency is below 100 percent, Germany is dependent on imports.