analysis
It was hardly about Trump, but he still has his party under control. That’s one of the lessons to be learned from the US Republican televised debate. But there are others – including the relationship between the base and outsiders.
1. You can’t dominate a debate by skipping
Donald Trump is certain that he has already won the race for the Republican presidential candidacy – and therefore skipped the debate. But despite being heralded as the “elephant in the room” by moderator Brett Baier, the ex-president was not the center of attention. In the first hour he was hardly mentioned at all or only indirectly by his competitors. Instead, they worked on each other and on the Democrats.
Nevertheless, it became clear how iron Trump’s grip on the party is, even among those who actually want to inherit him. When asked whether they would support him as the ultimately nominated candidate even if he was convicted of election rigging, six of the eight applicants obediently raised their hands. Only Trump’s currently most vocal inner-party critics, ex-governor Asa Hutchinson from Arkansas and his colleague Chris Christy from New Jersey, clearly explained why they consider Trump a threat to democracy and their country. And they were heavily booed for it by the Milwaukee crowd.
2. DeSantis doesn’t push through, Pence doesn’t give up
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ranks second in the polls. But the gap to Trump is large. And other candidates are catching up. One problem: Many Americans find the 44-year-old unapproachable and demure. Nickname: “Trump without humor”. In the debate, DeSantis had little opportunity to soften that impression. He received a lot of applause for his promise to send special troops to Mexico to fight the drug cartels there on the very first day after his election. But his speaking portion was significantly less than Mike Pence’s.
The ex-vice was unusually combative, especially competitor Vivek Ramaswamy often and almost aggressively interrupted. And he even managed to get everyone on stage to praise him for his behavior during the storming of the Capitol, when he officially confirmed Joe Biden’s victory despite death threats from Trump supporters.
3. Republicans like underdogs
The name that you have to remember after this debate at the latest: Vivek Ramaswamy, only 38 years old and already an entrepreneur worth billions. The country finally needs an outsider like him, the son of Indian immigrants announced with a happy grin, and it’s time for a revolution and a new American identity, based on the following guiding principles: God is real, there are only two genders, man-made climate change is one Invention and the US should not support the war in Ukraine but focus on the problems at home.
Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley told him that he unfortunately had no idea about foreign policy, and Pence declared him far too young and inexperienced. But the audience in the Milwaukee multipurpose hall applauded him almost continuously.
4. TV debates are not outdated
Even if Trump sees it differently and at least three of his competitors ultimately have no chance: the format is not yet obsolete. Because it offers the candidates the chance to make their personality, their agenda and themselves known. And to stand out in case Trump’s candidacy implodes. For example, because he will be behind bars until then. This is – as of now – unlikely, but not impossible.
The special prosecutor in Washington would like to start the trial against Trump for electoral manipulation as early as January, there is talk of six weeks of negotiations. Then the ex-president could be convicted before the primaries are over. And beat the hour of an inner-party competitor. Who could that be? After this first debate, it is not yet settled. But it was only the first round.
5. There is little that is new in terms of content from Trump
The ex-president, meanwhile, wanted to steal the show from Fox News with an interview that he had granted his favorite presenter Tucker Carlson in advance and that was broadcast on X (formerly Twitter) in parallel with the debate. The conversation at his home in Bedminster was 45 minutes long, but there was little new content: Trump still says that his last election victory was stolen and claims that his inner-party opponents are already stealing his certain victory in 2024 .
And he doesn’t want to rule out the possibility that his opponents will kill him. They are all wild, sick people. But compared to the debate, the interview seemed rather boring. The quota, which is so important for Trump, was probably still successful: more than 100 million users watched the post by midnight – if not the whole video.