Findings from the election: Saarland signals

The Saarland election was a vote with a limited signal effect. But there are still some insights. For example: Junior partners can also grow. There is no Merz effect. And: The Left Party has a problem.

Junior partners can also triumph

Office bonus is only for incumbents? Whoever goes into a coalition as a junior partner comes out shrunken? All wrong, as Saarland has shown. Vice Prime Minister Anke Rehlinger benefited from the pale image of incumbent Tobias Hans by simply outshining him. The sensational election victory of her SPD is above all her personal success. The fact that the challenger is better received, i.e. the incumbent, is a rarity in state elections. This has only happened twice in the past ten years: in 2011 in Baden-Württemberg, where Stephan Mappus was replaced by Wilfried Kretschmann, and in the same year in Hamburg, where Olaf Scholz succeeded Christoph Ahlhaus as mayor.

Speaking of Olaf Scholz 2011: It was also the current Chancellor who recently got an absolute majority for the SPD in a state election. And now Rehlinger in Saarland. But with all the joy of the Social Democrats. Even in this election, they cannot match the successes of Oskar Lafontaine: in 1990 he won an incredible 54.4 percent of the Saar for the SPD.

The Merz CDU and the Schulz train thing

The next state elections are due in May – first in Schleswig-Holstein, then in North Rhine-Westphalia. Just like in 2017. At that time, the Saarland also made the start. The SPD was floating in the Schulz euphoria. Her plan: election victories in the federal states, then election victory in the federal government. Martin Schulz becomes Federal Chancellor. As you know, things turned out differently. And that was also due to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who surprisingly clearly won on the Saar. Also because she warned about red-red and took advantage of the fact that Schulz remained vague on this issue. The Schulz train “jumped off the rails properly” in Saarland, CSU General Secretary Andreas Scheuer said at the time. So far there has been no talk of the Merz effect, but for the newly formed CDU the start to the election year has been a complete failure. Especially since the Christian Democrats have a lot to lose in this election year. Not only the Saarland. So far, the CDU has ruled in Kiel, but a loss of power in Düsseldorf would send out a nationwide signal.

Speaking of Düsseldorf: The last change of power in a state election was five years ago – Armin Laschet was the winner of the election. The then opposition leader won against SPD incumbent Hannelore Kraft. Four months later, the SPD lost the general election.

The Decline of the Left Party

The left was once a power in Saarland. It was so strong that Kramp-Karrenbauer warned of a red-red coalition in 2017 and this warning caught voters’ attention. In the meantime, hardly anyone is seriously warning of the Left Party, except perhaps Oskar Lafontaine. He has since left the party he once founded and made strong. The left ended up with 21.3 percent with Lafontaine as the top candidate – that was in 2009. In 2012 it was still 16.1 percent, and in 2017 it remained in double digits. And now? 2.5 percent, politically completely meaningless. This means that the downward trend is continuing; in western Germany it is only represented in Hamburg, Bremen and Hesse. She managed to get into the Bundestag with a bang. The left has a problem – in terms of personnel, but also in terms of content. It is on the way to becoming an East German regional party.

Saarland signals

State elections are always seen as a mood test – no matter how small or regional the vote is. The election in Saarland was the first after the general election and after the reorganization of the CDU. So a test for Scholz, his traffic light parties and for Merz. Nationwide issues or the Ukraine war apparently played hardly any role in the voting decision of the 750,000 Saarlanders entitled to vote.

Rather, it was about jobs, competence, credibility, people – and the weaknesses of others. Election winner Rehlinger benefited from the weakness of the incumbent and the dramatic loss of competence of the CDU in its very own areas such as the economy and the labor market. It also benefited from the quarreling small parties, which apparently did not represent an attractive alternative for many voters.

It is understandable that the federal SPD now speaks of “insane tailwind” and a “strong signal” (Kevin Kühnert) for the coming elections after the Saarland elections. It is also understandable that the CDU dismisses the election as a purely state political event, which was primarily about Saarland issues (Mario Czaja). The result does not reveal any national trend, according to CSU Secretary General Stephan Mayer. In anticipation of the defeat, the Union had already built a protective wall around its new chairman Merz as a precaution, and it also helps that he has only been in office since the beginning of the year. Another caliber is the NRW election in mid-May. If it is lost, then it goes home with Merz.