Egypt, to begin with, is very involved in Sudan. The model of General Al-Bourhane, the head of the Sudanese army, is Marshal Al-Sissi. Cairo also sees in Sudan, fundamentally, a vassal country, on which it is essential to exercise influence both to control the geopolitical factors (to build its own line of allies against Ethiopia, for example) but also natural resources (Egypt imports agricultural products and meat at low prices, and this is vital).
Cairo, to sum up, cannot bring itself to see in power in Khartoum an enemy leader. Relations between “Hemetti” and Ethiopia, no doubt exaggerated, push Egypt even more to support General Al-Bourhane. The Europeans, for their part, have an infinitely narrower view. Basically, their aspirations are based on the priority need to block migratory flows. And in this role, “Hemetti” and his FSRs played a key role. This is not a reason for the European Union to align itself with him, but it shows the limits of European projection in this region.
The United States, for its part, has considered Sudan with particular attention since the 1980s, when the country became, during the dictatorship of Omar Al-Bashir, a kind of little Islamist satan for the conservative right. and Christian circles. There is an electorate in the United States that has Sudan on its mind map, and in Washington, that matters.
But, on the other hand, the country is now conceived as a battleground for geopolitical influence with Russia, or perhaps China tomorrow. The United States, like the Europeans, supported the democratic movement which emerged during the major demonstrations of 2019 which caused the fall of Omar Al-Bashir. Then, when the transitional power was overthrown in a coup, there was not much left to defend. For a time, “Hemetti”, who presents himself as an objective ally of the Democrats – which is a shame but shows his talents –, while being compatible with many regional actors, exerted a kind of seduction in their eyes, but without marked preference.
Now that the guns have begun to speak, these notions will be put to the “acid test” of the ongoing self-destruction and we will have to count on an inclusive formula of power.