The civil war in Myanmar has moved to the border with Thailand. Until now, the military regime had been in charge there, but now the rebels are taking over. This doesn’t just make Thailand sit up and take notice.
Thailand’s foreign minister came to the border to get an idea of the situation. Over there – across the river – in Myanmar, people are queuing to get into Thailand. The minister can look over. The town of Myawaddy on the other side is now in rebel hands.
“We want peace in Myawaddy,” says Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara. He is worried that trade between countries will be affected. “We have to enter into a dialogue. We are happy to take on the role of a moderator when the time comes,” says the politician.
People take their belongings with them. A man at the border tells the Reuters news agency that the situation is too unsafe for him. “The situation in Myawaddy is okay,” he says, “but if we drive further into Myanmar, they’ll still shoot.” He’s afraid.
Trading city of strategic importance
Myawaddy now seems to have been taken over. It is a trading city of strategic importance. The civil war in Myanmar has now lasted three years. In 2021, the military junta seized power, destroying the emerging democracy. The regime is opposed by various ethnic groups spread across the country that are heavily armed.
David Brenner researches the war in Myanmar at the University of Sussex in England. Most people think that the conflict is about a democracy movement fighting against an authoritarian military regime. “And of course that’s true to a large extent,” says Brenner. “But it is far too brief. This war that we have been seeing since the military coup is actually just the latest escalation, the latest episode in the longest war in the world.”
Probably not a decisive defeat for the regime
The conflict has been simmering for 75 years. The trading town of Myawaddy, now recaptured by the rebels, may be strategically important, but the government, the military junta, remains in control of large parts of the country’s core. Therefore, the loss of control is a – but probably not a decisive – defeat for the regime.
Nevertheless, something is happening. This also explains why Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin suddenly said in an exclusive interview with Reuters: “We all know that the regime is starting to lose strength.” Is this the time for confrontation or dialogue? “I’m for the latter. Even if they lose – they have power and weapons. Maybe it’s time to make a deal.”
A deal – but where would it lead?
There is no solution in sight to the conflict in Myanmar. People are very poor – even more so now than before. A few years ago, Myanmar was still considered an economic shooting star in Southeast Asia. It is a state that borders India, China and Thailand. What is of central importance here is what happens to this great country.
Angelika Henkel, NDR, tagesschau, April 12, 2024 6:52 p.m