Federal SPD and the Lower Saxony elections: Breathe a sigh of relief in the Willy Brandt House

Despite the victory in Lower Saxony, no screams of joy can be heard from the SPD in Berlin – it’s more of a sigh of relief: there is no rebuke for politics in the federal government. The comrades are worried about the balance in the traffic lights.

Relief is probably the right word to describe the mood in the Willy Brandt House on election night. The polls were not entirely trusted, although many had predicted an SPD victory. It was probably too difficult for the SPD to assess how voters in Lower Saxony would react to the traffic light coalition in Berlin’s crisis management.

The fact that Stephan Weil can now remain prime minister probably also helps Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the SPD as a whole, says political scientist Thorsten Faas ARD Capital Studio. The success calms the party. “When it comes to winning, it doesn’t really matter who contributed how much,” says Faas.

Draw in the nationwide election record

So Scholz can also see himself as the winner of the election evening in Hanover. At the end of the year, the SPD’s record in state elections is at least balanced. That doesn’t come naturally in the first year of government at the federal level.

In Saarland, the party won an absolute majority at the beginning of the year. Then followed two defeats from the opposition in North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein. Now she is clearly defending the State Chancellery in Hanover and can probably even choose her coalition partner. That will probably be the Greens. This would also mean that the last grand coalition at state level would disappear.

Because can also contradictions

In Berlin, it is hoped that this will result in more traffic light-loyal politics than the red-black coalition that has ruled in Lower Saxony up to now. There would then be one less country in the Bundesrat whose voting behavior would be influenced by the Union.

However, it is far from clear whether this will lead to the traffic light being able to govern more easily. Especially in the past few weeks – for example in the discussion about the gas price brake and crisis financing – Weil has shown that he can articulate his country’s interests against the federal government, regardless of whether the chancellor is a comrade. The Lower Saxony head of government will probably continue to do so.

As head of the MPK, Weil also plays a role in federal politics

In the next six months he will be chairman of the Prime Ministers’ Conference (MPK), which is also important for the SPD. Although it is common for the head of the MPK to act in a non-partisan manner and to take the interests of all countries into account, the position is important, especially in the current crisis. The MPK chairman chairs the meetings of the committee and represents the results externally.

If the CDU had won the state election, the post would have gone to Bernd Althusmann. Now Weil remains the chairman and can thus also play a visible role in federal politics, even if negotiations between the federal and state governments about the financing of the crisis policy will continue in the near future. This can make communication more comfortable for the SPD. Because even if the MPK chairman is supposed to represent the position of the federal states, he can of course decide whether he emphasizes what divides or connects.

For once, the biggest concern of the federal SPD does not apply to its own party. The weak result of the FDP creates uncertainty. The Social Democrats are very concerned that the Liberals in the traffic light coalition are now even less willing to compromise.