In order to close gaps in the budget, the federal government now apparently also wants to review its 15.6 percent stake in Commerzbank. According to SZ information, an investment bank was commissioned to “examine options”. As several insiders said, this is fundamentally about a reassessment of the investment and the question of what level of dividend can be expected in the medium term. A sale is also being examined, but not in the short term, it was said. Commerzbank did not want to comment. A spokeswoman for the Federal Ministry of Finance said that the finance agency continuously manages and examines the investment in Commerzbank. The interministerial steering committee decides how to handle the participation. There is currently no decision to terminate the participation.
The federal government has already had a stake in Commerzbank for 15 years. During the financial crisis, the state had to save Germany’s second largest private bank. Since then, one federal government after another has dragged on with the investment without being able to bring itself to sell it. The problem: Even after the recent price increase, the bank’s share price would have to more than double to almost 25 euros per share so that the federal government could exit without a loss. The proceeds would also go to the Soffin bank rescue fund and would not flow into the budget. Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) had the Commerzbank share privatized during the opposition period although always requiredbut this was rejected by the government on the grounds that the financial institution was important for financing medium-sized businesses.
Following the Federal Constitutional Court’s ruling on the budget in mid-November, the federal government is now reassessing the state’s long-standing company investments, also in order to mobilize funds for the modernization of the railway. Most recently it was said that shares in Post and Telekom could be sold. In total, the state is involved in more than 100 companies.
With a market value of around two billion euros, the Commerzbank share is one of the smaller investments. At the same time, however, Commerzbank has recently recovered. The bank has saved heavily and is benefiting from high interest income after the key interest rate increase. The federal government has repeatedly questioned the investment in recent years and, for example, pushed for a merger with Deutsche Bank. But Berlin never dared to part with shares due to fear of a takeover by a foreign bank.
Speculation about a sale abroad
Commerzbank boss Manfred Knof recently seemed to have settled well with the federal government as a major shareholder. That is he had said again and againthat it would be better for a private bank if the state also divested itself of its participation. But that is a topic that remains to be seen. Supervisory board chairman Jens Weidmann, former Bundesbank president and chairman of the control committee since May, told the SZ just a few weeks ago that the question of privatization “does not, I think, currently arise.”
If the federal government sells the share, it could sell the shares on the stock exchange, sell them to a competitor or pass them on en bloc to a new major shareholder. Insiders confirmed a report from Bloomberg News Agency, according to which Knof recently spoke to sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the Middle East. The bank wants to arm itself against takeover attempts and maintain its independence. Knof has been talking to the funds in recent weeks to gauge their interest in a share of up to 9.9 percent. From ten percent onwards, bank shareholders need approval from the supervisory authority. If the federal government wants to sell its share to a sovereign wealth fund from an autocratically ruled country, this is likely to trigger discussions given the geopolitical situation.