FDP member survey: Strange with the traffic lights

A narrow majority of FDP members are in favor of remaining in the traffic light coalition. The party leadership sees itself strengthened. But the discontent within the party cannot be overlooked. What does this mean for government work?

FDP leader Christian Lindner in the online service 52.24 percent of survey participants reject leaving the coalition. Lindner probably breathed a sigh of relief when he saw the voting results on the first day of the new year. A vote to leave the traffic lights would not have been binding for the party leadership, but it would certainly have caused ongoing debates within the party.

Instead, the FDP leadership can point to support for its course. Majority is majority. Initiators of the decision, such as traffic light opponent Matthias Nölke, also recognize this. He explains to the ARD capital studio, this democratic result should be respected. But the order to continue like this may not be that clear after all.

Two messages

The camp of those who are against the separation of the SPD and the Greens has a lead of just 1,170 votes. That was close. Initiator Nölke doesn’t want to see the result as a defeat. A large minority made it clear that the FDP had to do a better job in the federal government. The FDP leadership cannot simply ignore this. She obviously doesn’t want to ignore the basic vote either. Lindner himself sees the vote as a request to the FDP in the cabinet to “continue to show a liberal profile in government action.”

After surveying members, the FDP has two messages for the traffic lights. The coalition with the SPD and the Greens continues. And the alliance of convenience will not lead to great love in the future either.

Party vice-president Wolfgang Kubicki quits Deutschlandfunk on Tuesday morning that the FDP had to become better and “more assertive” in the coalition. The prominent party rebel Frank Schäffler, who advocated remaining in the traffic light, calls the result of the survey a “warning shot” and that the FDP must resist the “greening” of politics.

Lindner feels encouraged

In fact, the 47.76 percent in favor of ending the traffic lights document a great deal of dissatisfaction among the FDP members who took part in the survey. But – and the party leadership also points out this – less than a fifth of the 72,000 party members voted for the traffic lights to be eliminated. The aversion to the red-green-yellow government alliance is no surprise for the party leadership. The unease of FDP supporters is already well known from previous surveys.

The liberal supporters are “strange with the traffic light coalition,” Lindner has already explained in the past. The party leader and finance minister are unlikely to see themselves in distress as a result of the current member vote. He probably takes it as reinforcement to keep pushing at the traffic lights. He can point to his base against the SPD and the Greens if the alliance partners demand too much from the FDP. The Liberals should continue to consistently defend their red lines. Despite all the discontent among their supporters, they have so far been quite successful when it comes to speed limits, saying no to tax increases and sticking to the debt brake.

It’s about political survival

This was probably also a deciding factor for supporters of the traffic light in the member survey. In addition to the belief expressed by many that one does not shirk responsibility when things become inconvenient. And then there is also the realization that the FDP is dangerously close to the five percent hurdle in surveys and that it might not be able to enter the Bundestag in new elections.

For the FDP it is also about maintaining power and its own political survival. Party vice-president Kubicki made an interesting slip of the tongue in an interview with Deutschlandfunk: “The Free Democrats are very selfish people. No, that’s the wrong expression. Very individual people. But they argue together and fight together.”

According to Kubicki, the FDP will do well in the European elections and at least two of the three elections in eastern Germany. And she will win the federal election. The FDP wants to shape things, the party leadership emphasized after the vote and sees tailwind for governing. Before the FDP starts the political year with its Epiphany meeting in Stuttgart this weekend, the member survey provides a glimpse into the liberal soul. The aversion to traffic lights cannot be overlooked. But in the opinion of the majority, giving up power would probably cost the party too much.