Falling corona numbers: (Not) a reason for hope?

The falling corona numbers should be treated with caution, as authorities are overloaded – it is currently in many media. But various pieces of evidence indicate that growth has actually stopped for the time being.

The nationwide seven-day incidence has fallen slightly. The health authorities reported 36,059 new corona infections to the RKI within one day – significantly fewer than in the previous week, when there were 45,753 infections.

However, many reports and comments point out that the numbers may be too low; the information from Saxony in particular appears to be conspicuously low. Presumably an overload of the health authorities is the reason for this.

Regional differences

Despite the apparent lack of cases from Saxony, various data are available that indicate that the strong growth has been halted for the time being – at least in many regions. In northern Germany, where the incidence is well below the national average and there should therefore not be any overloading of the offices, the incidence decreased, after growth had already weakened recently.

A visualization of the trends in the federal states also shows a partially contrary development: While the numbers have risen sharply in some countries, they are stagnating or falling in others.

The scientist Kai Schulze, who works at the RKI, already pointed out on his private Twitter account that the infection rate in Germany is very heterogeneous. He believes that while the overburdening of health departments plays a role in some regions, there are numerous other factors that need to be taken into account. Currently, “the weakening of the dynamics is real in many places”.

The RKI already had in the weekly report of December 2nd found that the sharp rise in the seven-day incidence had not continued recently. This could be “a first indication of a slightly weakening dynamic in the transmission process due to the significantly intensified measures to reduce contact
increasingly overloaded capacities in the public health service and exhausted laboratory capacities can be attributed to “.

Fewer recordings in intensive care units

The partially contradicting development can also be seen in a number that does not depend on test and laboratory capacities: the statistician Thomas Wieland pointed out that in several federal states the absolute numbers of initial admissions to intensive care units have declined.

Positive rate drops slightly

An important indicator of the increasing number of infections and a growing number of unreported infections is also a growing positive rate in the tests. However, this did not increase further in the past week, which at least suggests that growth may have stopped overall. According to the association “Accredited Laboratories in Medicine” (ALM), the positive rate fell slightly in the past week, from 21.18 percent to 20.95 percent.

“Even if the numbers show an approximately constant rate of positive results,” warns Dr. Michael Müller from ALM, the situation “remains very tense. Many laboratories are working to the limit of what is feasible. Now we have to implement all possible measures, reduce contacts as much as possible and promote vaccination”.

Nationwide numbers under complex

Even if the figures from Saxony, for example, are presumably incomplete, there are various indications that point to a stagnation of growth in several federal states.

The numbers for many regions in Germany should therefore not be completely useless, since the infection rate continues to vary widely from region to region. Nationwide information can in any case not depict contradicting developments.