The failure of the West in Afghanistan marks a turning point for German foreign and security policy. Whoever will be in charge of the future federal governments will find it even more difficult than it already was to find support in politics and acceptance in society for dangerous foreign missions of the Bundeswehr. The realization that an almost 20 year long mission with 59 deaths has been in vain is such a drastic finding.
The Taliban are again in power in Afghanistan. The episode in which Germany’s security “is also defended in the Hindu Kush”, as then Defense Minister Peter Struck (SPD) put it in 2002, ended with a humiliation. This cannot remain without consequences, especially for other missions based on the Afghanistan blueprint.
The largest such mission is currently running in Mali, West Africa. But the parallels to the failed Afghanistan mission cannot be overlooked. While it was the USA, on which everything depended and on which the Bundeswehr and the other participating nations relied, so far France has played the role of a strong partner in Mali, which is also not afraid of being “robust”, i.e. also in the Go skirmish with opponents. Like the Americans in Afghanistan, the French in Mali have made counterterrorism their top priority. Germany is indulging in the same idea in Gao as it did in Kunduz: to be able to build reliable state structures with its soldiers, including a functioning army. Among other things, the force participates in the training of Malian soldiers.
Afghanistan has just shown how terribly such an approach can fail. There the Americans unilaterally initiated the withdrawal, and without them nothing would work. In Mali it is not clear how long the French will be willing to continue their combat mission. Will everything collapse there too?
The next defeat: Mali?
The Taliban in Afghanistan didn’t really have to conquer Kabul. The Afghan army, supported and trained with billions of dollars from the international side, has surrendered the country to the Taliban almost without a fight. All efforts for a nation building In spite of this, a large part of the population has not identified with Afghanistan, with what constitutes a state. The fight was for clans, for population groups, for their own survival – but in the end not for a country in Afghanistan.
Such failure can be repeated in Mali. The Malian army has already carried out a coup twice. The future federal government will have the task of questioning its strategy for Mali. The election campaign, which is now entering the hot phase, should no longer avoid foreign policy disputes.
Now is also the time to talk about whether a National Security Council might not be needed after all, one that is more analytical and coordinating. The security situation in Afghanistan had recently been completely misjudged, the help for local staff from German institutions comes late, for many it may be too late. It was embarrassing to see how the ministries had shifted responsibility from one another over the course of weeks. Without local employees, the Bundeswehr would not be able to function in any distant place, but the trust that is necessary for this has to be painstakingly built up again.
The Bundeswehr itself will also change after this failure. The soldiers lacked support and recognition. The unconditional and ultimately hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan has undone what the soldiers have risked their lives for over the years. You leave the field beaten. Politics had set them unattainable goals. Under no circumstances should this happen again. Otherwise there is a great danger that the troops and politics will become even further alienated from one another.