background
Status: 07/26/2021 3:12 p.m.
The largest takeover in the German real estate sector failed again. After the severe setback, Vonovia now has four options. Investors, however, are speculating on the next attempt.
By Detlev Landmesser, tagesschau.de
After an initial announcement on Friday, Vonovia officially declared the takeover of Deutsche Wohnen to have failed on Monday morning. The Bochum housing group only collected 47.6 percent of the Deutsche Wohnen shares and missed the target by 50 percent. The German market leader tried in vain to take over the second in the industry from Berlin five years ago.
In the upcoming next round of strategic poker on the German housing market, Rolf Buch does not let himself be looked at. The Vonovia boss has not ruled out a new attempt. Even if the shares already tendered have to be booked back, Vonovia remains the largest shareholder in Deutsche Wohnen with 18.36 percent of the shares.
New offer possible
How could it go on now? Vonovia basically has four options for action. In addition to maintaining the status quo, i.e. doing nothing, the housing giant could sell its share of the competitor. This would not least hit the hedge funds, which are estimated to hold around a third of the paper, hard. Buch had blamed their delaying tactics for the failure of the offer. But selling a block of shares with a volume of around 3.4 billion euros is a difficult and lengthy transaction.
Thirdly, Vonovia could try to buy additional shares in the DAX competitor via the market – another lengthy and difficult task. But a new public offer would also be possible, provided the Deutsche Wohnen Board of Directors agrees. If it did not do this, Vonovia would have to wait twelve months according to the takeover law before the group starts a new takeover offer.
In any case, Vonovia had already emphasized the industrial logic of a merger on Friday. On Monday, the Berlin Senate confirmed its interest in buying 20,000 apartments from the real estate company. Vonovia and Deutsche Wohnen had already agreed on this with the state in the event of a takeover. The sale of the apartment package would give a merged group more room to maneuver after the expensive transaction.
Market speculates on a new attempt
The investors are apparently relying on a new attempt by Bochum. After initial losses, the Deutsche Wohnen share even climbed to the top of the daily winners in the leading DAX index. Market participants speculate that Vonovia will have to put more money on the table for a new offer in order not to fail a third time. Another setback would mean a serious loss of reputation for the company and its management. “It is clear that a new and higher offer would have to be submitted,” commented analyst Kai Klose from Berenberg Bank on Monday. “Vonovia should try again.”
Despite his costly and humiliating setback, the industry leader still has the reins of action in hand: “Everything is possible. We can do nothing, we can buy, we can sell. But now we have to do a thorough analysis of how things will continue” Vonovia boss Buch told Reuters news agency.