The corona infection numbers are exploding and are already well above those of the previous year. What does that mean for the coming weeks? A model calculation is circulating on Twitter that assumes the worst. Of the star asked two experts how realistic these “doomsday scenarios” are.
The current situation can be summarized briefly: It doesn’t look good. No matter which number you look at, none invites you to take off your mask in a relaxed manner. New corona infections: 21,832, seven-day incidence: 213.7 (all-time high), hospitalization rate on Monday: 3.93. The fourth wave drives the numbers steadily upwards. A trend reversal is not in sight. On the contrary. Where is that supposed to lead?
Current projections show curves that you actually no longer wanted to see in 2021 and with the vaccinations. In particular, the model calculations of a Twitter user are currently causing a stir. His so-called “Doomsday scenarios”, translated it means – quite dramatically – doomsday scenarios, depict a situation in which, as he explains in a thread, “even quick and decisive action can prompt overloading of the intensive system in 1- 3 weeks can no longer prevent “. There is talk of 10,000 intensive care patients at Christmas in the most optimistic case and hundreds of thousands of deaths by the end of January in the worst case. There are terms like “monster wave” and “disaster”.
Scare tactics or realistic forecast?
But how credible are these model calculations? Of the star asked Christian Karagiannidis and Andreas Schuppert. Karagiannidis is the scientific director of the Divi Intensive Care Register and senior physician at the Lung Clinic Cologne-Merheim. Schuppert teaches Computional Biomedicine at RWTH Aachen University. Together they also calculated the development of the Covid-19 intensive occupancy this autumn and winter in a dynamic model with incidences between 250 and 400. It is a preprint and has not yet been assessed by independent experts.
“Our model calculations are a little more conservative, but go in the same direction,” explain the two of them with reference to the “Doomsday scenarios”. According to their model, however, the increase will be slower and vary greatly from region to region. In their calculation, the number of intensive care patients rises to at least 3500, in the worst case around the record level from the second wave with almost 6000 patients. However, Karagiannidis and Schuppert do not expect the intensive care units to be overloaded. “The system has reserves and is flexible. Postponements of interventions will certainly be necessary locally, but in principle the system can and must be able to swallow something in the next few weeks,” says Karagiannidis. “But regionally it can get very, very tight.”
From an incidence of 300 it gets tight
“I consider incidences of 300 nationwide to be painful but affordable,” said the Divi expert. With an incidence at this level, the two expect around 4,500 Covid-19 patients who will need intensive medical care. And which incidence would be no longer manageable on the wards? “Well, that is also very different from region to region,” says Schuppert. “If we could distribute all patients well, we could work with averaged values, but that doesn’t help anyone who has no bed on site and who cannot be moved.” One can therefore assume that with a local incidence of 300 a burden occurs which is similar to that if 4500 intensive care beds are occupied nationwide.
In some federal states, in which the incidence is already over 400, it is “already very tight locally”. There is, for example, the district of Miesbach with a seven-day incidence of currently 868.4, Dingolfing-Landau with 778.5 or the district of Bautzen with 645.3 – three of several districts in which the number of infections is skyrocketing.
Autumn 2020 is not comparable to autumn 2021. Much has happened since then. At that time in the previous year, the corona vaccinations were not yet approved, now the first are already receiving a refreshment of their vaccination protection. Instead of a lockdown light like last year, we are now trying 2G and 3G. What remains: As in the previous year, the numbers soared in the autumn. Even more. They are now above the previous year’s values, to which the highly contagious Delta variant has a large share.
“We appeal to reason”
In a Twitter post, Karagiannidis calls for a brake on the model calculations in order to flatten the curve – and now. “We drive in the fog without GPS, even though we are actually not that far from herd immunity through vaccination. Bitter,” he wrote. At the moment, only a voluntary change in behavior of the population will help. In Germany, the vaccination rate bobs around at a value of 67.1 percent of those who have been completely vaccinated. For comparison: in Portugal it is 87.4 percent, in Spain 80 percent.
That means: Millions of people in Germany are still without vaccination protection. And: “The number of Sars-CoV-2 infections is ten times higher among those who have not been vaccinated than those who have been vaccinated. There are also a large number of people who have not been vaccinated and those with immunodeficiency among those who have undergone intensive medical treatment,” the Standing Vaccination Commission recently said (Stiko).
In their calculations, Karagiannidis and Schuppert still come to 15.8 million people in Germany who can potentially be infected with the virus, including around 270,000 who could potentially be subject to intensive care. These are composed of 232,000 non-vaccinated and 38,000 vaccinated or convalescent.
At the request of the star The experts also name wearing a mask indoors and voluntary contact restrictions as acute measures in order to now slow down transmissions and relieve the intensive care units. “We really appeal to the common sense of the people.” To this end, they formulate measures that, in their opinion, will become important over the winter in the medium term: “2G and boosters are essential. And as quickly as possible. To do this, we absolutely have to involve pharmacies in vaccination. It is also important to protect retirement and nursing homes with as much 2G or 3G as possible with intensive testing. ” And of course vaccination. Passive immunization with neutralizing antibodies is said to be extremely effective. “Here we have to try to catch as many patients with risk factors as possible early and keep them away from the intensive care unit.”
Virologist Christian Drosten had already spoken out in favor of closing the vaccination gap last week. So that all those who can get vaccinated can get vaccinated too. “You can only go into the endemic phase after the vaccine picking is over,” he wrote on Twitter. Drosten is not alone in his opinion. Experts agree that the vaccination rate must continue to rise. After all, this not only serves to protect oneself, but also to protect others.
Further measures to contain the fourth wave are currently being discussed, including the reintroduction of the free citizen tests.