Not a fake attack – but Iran was comparatively cautious in its attack on Israel, says security expert Masala in an interview. How the conflict continues depends on Israel.
Not a fake attack – but Iran was comparatively cautious in its attack on Israel, says security expert Masala in an interview. How the conflict continues depends on Israel.
The situation in the Middle East has escalated further with Iran’s drone attack on Israel. But there are also signs that indicate that Iran does not want any further escalation, security expert Carlo Masala from the University of the Bundeswehr analyzes in an interview with Bavarian Radio.
Iran has made limited use of military force
The risk of a wildfire in the region is not very high, Masala said. Iran has clearly communicated that it considers the matter to be closed with this attack.
In addition, Iran did not use all of its military force in the attack. “Iran has not used its heavy potential to cause massive damage in Israel,” Masala said. Although the country attacked with many drones, the use was very limited. Israel, together with its allies, could have shot down many drones before they could enter Israeli airspace.
In his own words, Masala believes that the theory that Iran designed the attack in such a way that Israel was able to repel it almost completely is wrong: “Of course Iran wanted to hit something, but it just didn’t use the really heavy arsenal that it wanted has the power to cause high civilian casualties in Israel.”
Iran wants to avoid US intervention
Masala also sees Iran’s request to the USA to stay out of the conflict as a sign that the Iranian leadership wants to prevent the USA from intervening at all costs: “This shows that Iran is aware that it has a massive “The regime would not survive a counterattack from Israel and from the Americans.”
For the further course of the conflict, it now depends on how Israel reacts to the attack and whether it decides to carry out counterattacks on Iranian territory. “That would actually be an expansion of the conflict in the region,” said Masala.
Israel has several options to respond. In addition to direct retaliatory strikes on Iranian territory, covert operations against Iranian institutions and officials are also conceivable.
The USA’s influence on Israel is particularly great
Another factor is the allied states. The influence of the USA in the conflict is very great. “Israel needs the United States at least as political support.” That is why Israel has repeatedly addressed US concerns in the war against Hamas. He expects that the USA and other allies will influence Israel so that it does not carry out direct counterattacks.
In his own words, Masala does not see a way to a diplomatic solution: “There is no diplomatic solution between Iran and Israel.” Iran’s attack cannot be resolved diplomatically.