Status: 07/19/2022 12:12 p.m
According to experts, a “blackout”, i.e. a power failure in Germany in the coming winter, is rather unlikely. However, the risks for the power supply could increase as a result of several conceivable developments.
According to experts, the risk of a serious power failure in Germany is also low in the coming winter. However, a whole series of factors could mean that there could still be supply bottlenecks, as a survey of various experts by the dpa news agency revealed.
These experts are mostly confident that the power grid in Germany will be able to withstand a possibly higher load even in winter. Despite the shutdown of the last German nuclear power plants at the end of the year, the experts do not expect major electricity bottlenecks, also because hard coal-fired power plants would be taken out of reserve.
Scarcity possible, blackout unlikely
According to Tobias Federico, managing director of the consulting firm Energy Brainpool, he is “not preparing for a blackout”. Christoph Maurer from Consentec, a consultant specializing in energy, considers the situation to be tense, but basically manageable in a normal winter. Thorsten Lenck from Agora Energiewende was more cautious: “According to our previous analyzes it is quite possible that there could be a shortage in a few hours in winter.”
An analysis of the electricity supply published a few days ago by the Federal Ministry of Economics comes to the conclusion that “safe operation of the electricity supply network is guaranteed in the winter of 2022/23”. However, Economics and Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) commissioned another “stress test”. This is to test the resilience of the German power supply under “further tightened conditions”.
French nuclear power plants as a risk factor
Several influencing factors could contribute to these aggravated conditions. For example, the nuclear power plants in France, from which Germany has to draw electricity in winter. There, a large part of the piles are shut down after small cracks were discovered in the emergency cooling system or due to maintenance work. If it is not possible to get enough of these nuclear power plants back on the grid in time, this could pose a challenge for German suppliers due to the European network. This is especially true in a harsh winter, as many French people heat with electricity.
Weather influences can also affect electricity security in Germany during the cold season. A “dark doldrums” in which several days are produced with little wind and solar power makes the power supply more critical. Together with a cold spell, which significantly increases the power requirement, this is a concern, says Thomas Federico from Energy Brainpool.
Gas power plants in the service of power generation
The gas-fired power plants, which still contribute to electricity production in Germany, could also play a role in a shortage if they cannot be supplied with sufficient fuel. During peak loads, they are jointly responsible for ensuring the stability of the power grid. Because of the uncertain Russian deliveries, gas from the storage facilities is now to be used primarily for heating.
Fan heater as a network killer?
Last but not least, according to the experts, the behavior of consumers when it comes to the load on the power grid during the cold season also plays an important role. If they increasingly heat with electricity in order to save gas, for example, this would be a burden. In the past few weeks, many Germans have already stocked up on fan heaters or convectors. If it were really used for heating on a large scale, it could bring the power grids to their knees, according to Consentec’s Christoph Maurer: “This is a scenario that has to be prevented at almost any price.”