To say the least the first wave did not please him, this photograph of public opinion having, according to him, “less effectiveness than the study of the livers of poultry which prevailed throughout antiquity to predict events”. The second will make him cringe again.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who repeats that his chances of winning “have never been so strong”, still seems far from realizing his dream of to be prime minister after the legislative elections. Just over three weeks before the first round, the New Popular and Social Union (Nupes) created around the Insoumis is still ahead of the presidential majority in the second wave of the OpinionWay-Kéa Partners barometer for “Les Echos” and Classic Radio, carried out astride the appointment of Elisabeth Borne at the head of the government.
L’ left alliance is credited with 24% of the votes on average, on the whole of the territory, against 27% for the banner Together!, which brings together the formations which support Emmanuel Macron. Both rose by 1 point in one week, when the National Rally fell by the same amount, to 22%.
The alliance between LFI, EE-LV, the PCF and the PS remains in a position of strength to become the first opposition to the Assembly. It would obtain for the moment 140 to 170 deputies out of 577, against sixty in the outgoing hemicycle. But the Nupes suffers from a problem of mobilization, which explains the efforts of its leader to dangle Matignon. “In the presidential election, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Yannick Jadot, Fabien Roussel and Anne Hidalgo received 30% of the votes. We always do more in four than alone, ”recalls Bruno Jeanbart, vice-president of OpinionWay, highlighting the “losses” online.
“Not in danger”
The various left and other environmental candidates than those of the left alliance are thus respectively credited with 3% and 2% of the votes. A voter of Yannick Jadot out of two leans towards Nupes and one out of five towards the presidential majority. And if the alliance on the left seduces young people today, they are less likely to vote than the over 65s. However, seniors would vote today at 42% for the candidates supported by Emmanuel Macron (against 18% for Nupes).
The presidential majority is above all favored by political logic – which wants voters to give the person they have elected at the Elysée the means to implement his policy – and by his central position in future second rounds. It could hope for between 310 and 350 seats, i.e. an absolute majority (289). “For the moment, there are no strong dynamics for the presidential majority, which would obtain fewer seats than in 2017, but the fact of being opposed to two radical forces does not put it in danger”, analyzes Bruno Jeanbart. No less than 62% of French people want Emmanuel Macron not to have a majority. But only 30% think he won’t.
The formation of Marine Le Pen, it remains weighed down by the voting method, majority in two rounds. She would only get 15 to 35 elected. What constitute a parliamentary group (15 deputies) but very far from the objective of the finalist of the last two presidential elections, who hopes “at least 60 deputies” to be able to seize the Constitutional Council. As for the right, it struggles to exist, after the crash of Valérie Pécresse in the presidential election . With 11% of the votes on average, LR is credited with 50 to 70 seats.
The campaign will now intensify with, in the background, the formation of the new government and its first announcements. For the moment, the legislative elections do not excite the crowds. Only one out of two French people claim to be “interested” in it.
To note
Shouting to the “maneuver”, the left-wing union regrets that “the macronist camp has decided to separately count the votes collected by candidates from LFI, EELV, PS or PCF”.