Posted on Nov 18, 2021 4:58 PMUpdated Nov 18, 2021, 5:38 PM
His declaration of candidacy should not be long any longer – many of his supporters have been urging him to do so for weeks – and he has indicated that a first campaign rally could be held in December. There is certainly an urgency for Eric Zemmour to initiate a new dynamic. While he seemed to literally walk on water since he had done burst into the landscape political, the polemicist is now in a zone of turbulence.
It marks time in the last PresiTrack survey OpinionWay for “Les Echos”, CNews and Radio Classique. The former political journalist and TV columnist sees voting intentions in his favor crumble by a point, to 12%, as the future flag bearer of the right is called Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse or Michel Barnier. He is even today ahead, by one point, by the boss of the Hauts-de-France region.
” A warning “
Even with the margin of error, Eric Zemmour appears above all very far from threatening Marine Le Pen, credited with 19% to 21% of the votes (up one point), and Emmanuel Macron, at 24-25%. “Its momentum is interrupted. It’s a warning, ”analyzes Bruno Jeanbart, the vice-president of OpinionWay. “There is a form of weariness. The Eric Zemmour phenomenon is no longer a phenomenon. It is no longer sufficient, in itself, to center the campaign around him, ”he continues, deeming the period“ complicated ”for him.
The author of “France has not said its last word” (his last book) suffers from his difficulty in broadening his campaign discourse, always centered on immigration and Islam, which is moreover at the time when the Covid crisis resurfaces and pushes up the topic of social protection. Partly for that, but also because it is difficult to see with whom he could govern, the troublemaker struggles to fit, in the eyes of public opinion, into the costume of head of state. A function which benefits, in France, from a “strong symbolism”.
Only 20% of French people consider him “capable of governing the country from 2022 to 2027”. Against 34% for Marine Le Pen, who went back to the offensive by insisting on social issues and targeting a female electorate more reluctant towards the polemicist. In this regard, the outcry triggered by Eric Zemmour by accusing François Hollande of not having “protected the French”, on the anniversary of the attacks of November 13, 2015 and in front of the Bataclan, probably did not help. Even if, recalls OpinionWay, “controversies have always existed around him and are part of the campaign universe of this type of candidate”.
No rallying
Barely 6% of those questioned think that Eric Zemmour will be elected to the Elysée, down 2 points over one month, while Marine Le Pen is at 14% (up 2 points). This explains why no large political leader has rallied to him, as he hoped. Jean-Marie Le Pen supported where it hurts by accusing him, Monday, of not being “up to the event”. “He burned his cards without realizing it,” he said in “Le Télégramme”, recalling that his daughter, in contention for the third time and finalist in 2017, has “a certain profession”.
“Eric Zemmour scored points with his argument that Marine Le Pen cannot access the Elysee Palace. The problem is, it doesn’t offer a prospect of victory either. It weakens him, ”explains Bruno Jeanbart, observing that the essayist will not have the easy task of announcing his candidacy, when the media light is on the battle right : “How do you declare yourself when it is for public opinion ?, he asks. How to initiate a dynamic with a non-event? “