Ex-General Amos Gilead: “The war could last up to a year”

The terrorist attack on October 7th was also due to mistakes made by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – he made Hamas strong in the first place. This is what Israeli military expert Amos Gilead says in an interview. And predicts a long war.

By Verena Hölzl

Hardly anyone knows the Israeli military and its strategies as well as Amos Gilead. He worked in the army and the Ministry of Defense for more than three decades, most recently as a major general. From 2001 to 2003 and again in 2006, he was responsible for the Israeli state’s relations with the Palestinian Authority. He was also a military advisor under Yitzhak Rabin’s government. Today, Gilead teaches security studies at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy and is director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS). His work these days is also determined by the events and consequences of October 7th.

General, what are you talking to your students about in these days of war?

Talking about Hamas is nothing new. I had warned long before October 7th that something was going to happen. We had to expect an attack. It is Hamas’ declared goal to wipe out us Israelis. They never kept that a secret. On the contrary, they literally preached it. Of course, I didn’t foresee that things would turn out so bad in the end. The nature of the crimes reminds me of the Holocaust. The fact that something like this could happen is a fiasco.

How could it come to this?

There have always been secret service mistakes throughout history. Just think of Pearl Harbor. Or the Yom Kippur War. Otherwise, I always say: You always have to remain flexible and never believe that you can assess the enemy well enough.

Amos Gilead in his office in Herzliya – behind him on the wall is a photo of the Auschwitz concentration camp

© Verena Hölzl

People in southern Israel had to defend themselves for hours armed with kitchen knives because the security forces did not show up. Does that hurt you as a former general?

It hurts me like crazy. I can literally feel the pain in my body. I could never have imagined that events like those on October 7th were possible. After all, the military quickly recovered and removed the terrorists from our territory. What is needed now is openness about how these attacks could have happened.

When will anyone take responsibility for what happened?

The military and secret service have already admitted their responsibility. What the As far as the Prime Minister is concerned, I don’t get the impression that he will ever admit guilt. It is he who is fully responsible. Benjamin Netanyahu consciously kept Hamas alive for years. I never thought that was the right strategy. At the demonstrations against judicial reform, I also said every week: Look how weak we look in the eyes of Hezbollah and Hamas. I am of the opinion that Netanyahu could leave now. Churchill also became Prime Minister after Chamberlain’s resignation in the middle of the war.

prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is known for surviving crises. What if he gets away this time too? Is there then a front against the government?

I am cautious when making predictions about Netanyahu. But one thing is certain. He has weakened this country and he must go. I doubt whether he does this voluntarily. But he will have to go.

How long will the Israeli military operation in Gaza last?

It can last up to a year. But of course that also depends on how you define the goal. The most intense phase will last a few more weeks.

There are concerns about the high number of victims. How many civilians will have to pay with their lives for the elimination of Hamas?

Every civilian casualty is one too many. At the same time, I’m not saying we can protect them all. Hamas uses civilians as human shields. There are apartments where the family lives in one room and the rockets that will later fly towards Tel Aviv are stored in the other. We’re trying to encourage civilians to move south. That’s why the operation takes so long.

Palestinians in the south of the Gaza Strip tell me that there are bombings there too.

I don’t know what propaganda they were exposed to.

Will civilians from the south be allowed to go back to the north?

I certainly hope so. I hope for a peace process in which Germany can play an important role. And I believe that the Palestinians deserve full reconstruction. Questions about the future of the Gaza Strip are hardly being discussed in Israel at the moment; we are focused on defeating the monster Hamas.

So you are not in favor of renewed Israeli occupation?

No, I was responsible for it twice. I don’t want to control the lives of the people of Gaza, it’s a nightmare.

The children who are now growing up in the Gaza Strip will later hate Israel for the bombs now? What do you want to do about it?

Good question. I’m not sure I have a good answer to that either. But it has to start with education. Germany also developed into a great democracy after the Second World War. Is that the only solution? No. But we must first remove this cancer of Hamas. Then we can look at how we can stop radicalization.

Is there a chance for peace in the Middle East?

It depends on what you mean by peace. In our region, peace is something different than in Europe, for example. We don’t know anything like peace between France and Germany. But we made an interesting kind of peace with Egypt, for example. I think there is also hope for peace with Saudi Arabia. In my opinion, ignoring the Palestinians was a mistake from the start. I can still remember times when I went to the Gaza Strip to eat hummus. I believe that things can be turned around.

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