The European election campaign had a defining moment until this week. It was a sentence from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the debate between the European top candidates in Maastricht at the end of April: In the search for majorities in the European Parliament, she was ready to work with right-wing parties in the future. The offer was primarily aimed at the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Fratelli d’Italia. The competition used this to forge their election campaign theme: Europe needs a firewall against the right!
Since this week there has been a big hole in the fire wall. The right-wing extremist Geert Wilders in the Netherlands managed to form a government coalition as the winner of the election – and that was only possible because the liberal party VVD of the previous head of government Mark Rutte got involved with Wilders. An alliance between the European People’s Party (EPP), to which Ursula von der Leyen belongs as a CDU politician, and Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli now appears in a different, milder light. And Emmanuel Macron, the French President, in particular has a problem as a leading force in the European liberal camp.
Meloni can expect strong profits
Just last week, Valéry Hayer, Macron’s deputy in the European Parliament, signed a paper as liberal group leader together with the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Left that was directed against Ursula von der Leyen. It is titled “Defense of Democracy” and amounts to the demand: There must be no cooperation with extreme right-wing, radical parties. Now Hayer has said she “totally disapproves” of the Dutch coalition.
The dispute still has unforeseeable consequences for European politics. In extreme cases, it could lead to a split in the liberal group in the European Parliament (“Renew”). Rutte’s party belongs to the same European grouping as the German FDP. However, “Renew’s” strongest force is Macron’s followers. The European Greens have already demanded that the Liberals send Rutte’s people out the door.
The more divided the liberal camp is, the greater Meloni’s influence in European politics is likely to become. In the last legislative period, the Liberals, the EPP and the Social Democrats supported the Commission President’s program. According to polls, this informal alliance will become shaky after the elections. Meloni, on the other hand, can expect strong gains.
In the camp of declared EU enemies
To understand the scope of the conflict surrounding Geert Wilders, it is worth taking a look at the political map of the EU. Wilders is of a different caliber than Meloni. His followers from the PVV belong to the same faction (“Identity and Democracy”) in the European Parliament as Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, as well as the FPÖ and the AfD. It is the camp of the declared enemies of the EU; they are engaging in pure obstructionism in Parliament.
Meloni’s people, on the other hand, are part of the “European Conservatives and Reformers” (ECR), a heterogeneous, national-conservative, EU-sceptic group. Following Meloni’s intervention, the Fratelli recently appeared to support the state in the European Parliament. They helped pass important legislation with a center-right majority, including the major European asylum law reform.
Wilders wants “the toughest asylum law ever”
It is precisely this reform that Wilders does not want to submit to with his new government. Because it enshrines the duty of European solidarity at least as a principle. A country that does not accept refugees from an EU contingent should at least pay compensation for them. The Dutch government will use an opt-out clause, says Wilders, who wants to build the “toughest asylum law ever” in the Netherlands. The Commission has already stated that there is no such opt-out clause. European law is European law.
It is unlikely to be the last point of contention between the EU and the new Dutch government. Wilders has committed to following the EU line on key points. The government is not withdrawing from European climate policy and promises to continue to support Ukraine in its defense against Russia. But she is “very critical” of EU expansion, which will be the big issue in the next few years.
The debates about Wilders show how difficult demarcation to the right has become in Europe. The news from the Netherlands comes as a relief for Ursula von der Leyen’s election campaign. Your party leader Manfred Weber, who maintains close contacts with Giorgia Meloni, can point out that the EPP’s “firewall” is standing. In any case, it rules out alliances at the European level with the far right.
However, the Dutch coalition also includes the party of the former Christian Democrat Pieter Omtzigt and the Farmers’ Party. Both have announced that they want to come under the umbrella of the European People’s Party. The EPP just says that they will deal with this after the European elections.