Norway has a long football tradition. But on Sunday evening the Northmen benefited above all from being well versed in mathematics since Niels Henrik Abel (1802 to 1829) proved in his short life that a general equation of the fifth degree cannot be solved by a formula that only contains roots and Basic arithmetic operations are used. The game that Norway lost 1-0 to Spain at the Ullevaal Stadium in Oslo highlighted a whole series of formulas that characterize modern football.
The most striking thing on Sunday was that the Norwegians had calculated with incredible speed how great the chances were of qualifying for the European Championships in Germany in 2024. They are at “13 percent,” trumpeted the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten out – as soon as the game was over. Her optimism was also commendable, because she could have expressed it differently – pure arithmetic: Martin Odegaard (Arsenal FC) and Erling Braut Haaland (Manchester City), who are among the most exciting things international football currently has to offer, now have an 87 -percent certainty of missing the next big tournament after the 2021 European Championships and the 2022 World Cup.
At the end of the game, Odegaard hadn’t fully grasped this: “I really don’t know what the situation is,” he groaned. But that was no longer shameful; There are general terms and conditions for online purchases that are easier to read than the winding paths that lead to the European Championship.
Okay, the fact that direct qualification in Group A is ruled out because, in addition to the Spaniards, the Scots without a game can no longer be pushed out of the first two places in the table is of Old Testament clarity. But then it gets complicated: Norway will only be able to enjoy a European Championship trip to Germany next summer if at least 16 of the 22 teams at the top of the Nations League rankings qualify directly for the European Championship. Or: if at least four of the seven teams that are currently ahead of Norway in Nations League Season B buy the ticket. Captain? Not so bad, there’s still time until the draw in December.
Mathematically, Norway’s qualification is still possible. But the calculation is complicated
But it wasn’t just because of the strange calculation models for possible qualification scenarios that the evening made people wish for the good old days. But also because of the crucial game sequences.
The game was characterized on the one hand by the oppressive control by the Spanish guests, and on the other hand by the fact that a man in a screaming yellow jersey attracted the camera lenses: the German referee Tobias Stieler, who was the focus of attention whenever the video referee had to intervene.
In focus: the German referee Tobias Stieler, who is here explaining to Álvaro Morata (left) why his goal doesn’t count.
(Photo: Vegard Grött/Bildbyran/Imago)
This was the case in the first half, when Norwegian defender Stefan Strandberg poked the ball past his own goalkeeper in a desperate attempt to defend – and Spain’s top scorer Álvaro Morata didn’t let himself be stopped from giving the ball an unnecessary nudge in front of the goal line . Morata’s passive offside position became an active one. One of the strange circumstances was that Spain’s outstanding defensive midfielder Rodri immediately recognized the significance of Morata’s action – and instinctively put the striker in the corner. Rodri knew the goal would be disallowed. Referee Stieler needed the crutch of VAR for the cancellation.
The scene that led to Gavi’s winning goal for the Spaniards in the 49th minute also had to be validated using VAR. But it was much more complex. The aim was to examine three possible offside positions, to evaluate the effect of the entry and exit angle of the ball on the goalkeeper’s field of vision and to comply with the sub-paragraphs of the football code for passive offside positions. After four (!) minutes, the VAR made the decision: goal! And it plunged “the whole of Norway into huge disappointment,” as former Bundesliga professional Kjetil Rekdal reported on the phone on Monday.
Of course, there is talk in the Norwegian media about Stale Solbakken, who extended his contract as Norwegian national coach just a few months ago – and therefore perhaps too early. “But this reflex is far too short-sighted; you can’t pinpoint it on a single person,” says Rekdal. On Sunday, Norway didn’t play well against good Spaniards and only had a chance in the 65th minute, something like that could happen. The fact that the former Cologne coach Solbakken said on Sunday that they “did not miss the direct qualification today” was fully supported by ex-Herthan player Rekdal the next day. Rekdal recalled that Norway controlled the game in Spain but lost 3-0, gave up a lead in the last three minutes against Scotland in June and lost 2-1 – and also lost 1 in Georgia in March: 0 couldn’t hold. “When it comes down to it, we won’t be there,” says Rekdal.
Norway is “on the same level as San Marino, Liechtenstein or Andorra,” says Kjetil Rekdal
This is all the more sad for the Norwegians, as they have the best generation in decades. “Our football as a whole has made a leap. You can see this not only in Haaland and Odegaard, but also in the fact that we now have players at Sevilla FC, SSC Napoli, FC Burnley, Brighton & Hove Albion, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax Amsterdam and achieve good success with the youth teams,” explains Rekdal. And yet Norway regularly fails. “We are the HSV of Europe,” Rekdal even says, because the Norwegians mess up qualifying for major tournaments as regularly as Hamburger SV messes up their return to the Bundesliga.
Norway has fallen behind “countries like Finland, North Macedonia and Albania” and according to the results it is “more on the same level as San Marino, Liechtenstein or Andorra,” Rekdal complains. Maybe we have to go the “German way,” says Rekdal, and organize a big tournament together with Sweden and Denmark. Because then Norway would automatically qualify – like Germany for 2024.