Next winter is likely to be tense. In the event of a total stoppage of Russian gas deliveries, the European Union will have to continue its efforts to further reduce its needs in order to avoid running out of gas in the winter of 2023-2024, warns this Monday the International Agency for energy (IAEA) in a report. The gap between supply and demand “could reach 27 billion cubic meters in 2023 in a scenario where gas deliveries from Russia fall to zero and imports of LNG (liquefied natural gas) from China rebound to levels of 2021,” according to this report.
This figure of 27 billion is equivalent to around 6.5% of the EU’s annual consumption in 2021, which amounted to 412 billion cubic meters, the highest since 2011, according to figures from Eurostat. In 2022, it could reach 360 billion cubic meters, according to figures mentioned by the IEA. “The European Union has made significant progress in reducing its dependence on Russian gas, but it is not yet out of danger,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol on Monday.
Prevention rather than cure
It recalls that the circumstances which enabled member countries to fill their storage sites during the spring and summer of 2022 for this winter may not be repeated in 2023. The report insists in particular on the fact that, in addition to a shutdown Russian deliveries, Beijing’s demand for LNG could pick up again due to a rebound in the Chinese economy, increasing competition with Europe to buy the LNG available in the world. The mild temperatures experienced this fall in Europe may also well not recur, which would consume more stocks.
This report shows, according to Fatih Birol, that a “greater effort on energy efficiency, the development of renewable energies and heat pumps and energy saving measures, is vital to counter the risks of shortages and of a further spike in prices next year”. In the years preceding the war in Ukraine, the reference price of gas on the European market was around 20 euros per megawatt hour. It rose this year to 300 euros before falling back to 100 euros.