A war in Europe – for a long time unthinkable for many people – appears again as a possible scenario to most Europeans in view of the Ukraine crisis: surveys by the think tank European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) in Germany, Finland, France, Italy, Poland, Romania and Swedes show that the majority believes that Russia will invade Ukraine later this year. This concern is particularly prevalent in Eastern European countries; in Germany, at least 52 percent assume a Russian attack.
There is broad agreement on the question that in this case NATO or the EU should defend Ukraine – at least 60 percent agree here.
People in Poland, Germany, Romania and Italy prefer a NATO mission, while the French, Swedes and Finns prefer the European Union.
And around half of those surveyed see the USA, Germany or France as having an obligation. Only in Poland, however, does a majority (65 percent) think that their own country should side with Ukraine. In all other countries, approval ranges from 43 percent (Sweden) to 37 percent (Germany), and among the Finns only one in five shares this opinion.
In Germany, according to the survey, supporters of the Greens and the SPD are slightly more willing to defend Ukraine than voters of the Union. And most of the AfD supporters are against such a mission.
When it comes to possible negative consequences of a conflict with Russia, there are clear differences between the individual states. In Poland, Sweden and Romania, more people are willing to accept such consequences than are opposed to it.
ECFR experts find it worrying that French and German citizens are the least willing to risk possible negative consequences for the economy, high energy prices, Ukrainian refugees, military or cyber attacks by Russia. All in all, according to the experts, “the Russian president should be surprised that most Europeans are apparently prepared to defend Ukraine.”