The climb is less steep, but the descent is not yet in sight. According to the latest projections from the Global Carbon Budget, a report, published Tuesday, December 5, from the Global Carbon Project collective which brings together one hundred and twenty-one scientists and ninety-five organizations, global CO emissions2 linked to the production and consumption of fossil fuels will be 36.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (or 36.8 gigatons – GtCO2) in 2023.
This represents an increase of 1.1% compared to 2022, and this total is still 1.4% above 2019 levels, just before the temporary decline linked to the global Covid-19 epidemic. And if we take into account the deficit linked to change in land use (deforestation for example), the result is 40.9 GtCO2.
Year after year, the greenhouse effect strengthens. “The level of CO2 atmospheric is expected to reach an average of 419.3 ppm [parties par million] in 2023, or 51% more than pre-industrial levels”indicates the study which warns that the most ambitious threshold of the 2015 Paris agreement could soon be crossed: “ If current levels of CO emissions2 persist, the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C with a probability of 50% could be exceeded in seven years. »
“We just accelerate slower”
While the 28e world climate conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, is supposed to discuss the reduction or exit from fossil fuels, the world’s dependence on these fuels is still immense.
In detail, emissions linked to coal (41% of the whole) should increase by 1.1%, those linked to oil (32%) would increase by 1.5% and those linked to natural gas (21% ) are expected to grow by 0.5%. The only clarification in this picture is the release of CO2 increases less strongly than in the past: + 0.5% over the last decade (2013-2022), below the annual growth of 2.6% observed over the previous decade (2003-2012).
“We are in a world where emissions continue to increase, but less quickly, the concern is that they should be reducedsummarizes Philippe Ciais, researcher at the Climate and Environmental Sciences Laboratory and member of this collective. It’s like when a wall comes and you are at 120 km/h, you should brake but you just accelerate slower. » The report from the United Nations Environment Program, published on November 20, recommended reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 42% in 2030 to hope to contain warming to +1.5°C.
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