A vaccination in Moselle (illustration). – POL EMILE / SIPA / SIPA
The note may be salty … The delay taken by the European Union on its vaccination schedule is now seven weeks against five in early February, and could cost member states nearly 123 billion euros in 2021, according to a calculation made public Thursday by credit insurer Euler Hermes.
The EU has set a target of vaccinating 70% of the population against Covid-19 by the end of the summer. But the acceleration in the pace of vaccinations, necessary to achieve this, is notably hampered by delays in delivery of the vaccine from Swedish-British AstraZeneca, and the slowness of vaccination campaigns.
The delay could cost the French economy 21 billion euros
For France, Euler Hermes also assesses the vaccine delay at seven weeks and this delay is also increasing. According to experts from the credit insurer, “each week of delay in vaccination could cost 3 billion euros to the French economy”. With seven weeks late, we will therefore arrive at a cost of 21 billion euros for the French economy for this year if it is not met.
In comparison, Germany’s current delay, if not made good, will cost its economy 20 billion euros, Italy’s 14 billion and Spain’s 21 billion, said Ana Boata. , director of macroeconomic research at Euler Hermes.
Supply difficulties on the agenda of the European summit
“It’s hard to believe that we are going to close this gap completely because we are very late” in France, she underlines. For Ana Boata, this delay also calls into question the relevance of using funds from the European recovery plan now. “There are uncertainties and (economic) agents who do not have the will to spend because of these uncertainties,” said the economist.
“This is why it was important not to be late, because the faster we emerge from the health crisis and the faster we can stimulate effectively”, explains Ana Boata, the United States and the United Kingdom. United being in this respect in a better situation than the European Union.
The vaccine supply difficulties will dominate the discussions of a summit of the Twenty-Seven meeting Thursday by videoconference. The European Commission has strengthened a vaccine export control mechanism put in place in January, drawing criticism from London but also from EU member countries who fear retaliatory measures.