It is one of the rituals of the European Union that, before each summit, the EU Council President writes a letter to the heads of state and government and explains the agenda. The current writing of Charles Michel contains no surprises: Russia’s “unjustified military aggression against Ukraine” and its consequences for Europe’s security and economy, as well as the millions of refugees, will dominate the meeting beginning on Thursday at the Palace of Versailles.
In front of a magnificent backdrop, host Emmanuel Macron will not only provide information about his telephone calls with Russia’s head of state Valdimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The French President wants to advance the project that has been on his mind for years: the EU should become more sovereign and resilient so that it can play a more important role on the world stage.
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The draft of the “Declaration of Versailles” names three areas: The 27 EU states want to “strengthen our defense capabilities” by investing more money in their armies and “innovative technologies” and by cooperating more closely. The second goal, namely “to reduce our energy dependency”, has been dominating the headlines for days. There is agreement to buy less gas, oil and coal from Russia as quickly as possible, but the alternatives remain open: could more nuclear power be necessary in addition to expanding renewable energies? In Versailles, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is likely to come under pressure to explain the German veto against a ban on Russian oil imports. In addition, the EU states want to put themselves on a “more robust economic basis” – i.e. reduce their “strategic dependencies”, which currently exist for semiconductors, raw materials or even food.
But neither in the letter from Council President Michel nor in the draft of the declaration is the topic that worries many in Brussels’ European quarter. French newspapers had reported that Macron wanted to create a “resilience plan” that – like the “Next Generation EU” (NGEU) recovery fund created in response to the pandemic – would be financed by issuing European debt instruments. In order to mitigate the consequences of Putin’s war and the sanctions, funds can be diverted from the NGEU, which comprises 750 billion euros, in the short term, but in order to make the EU more independent, more investments must be made over the years, according to Paris sources.
Macron’s resilience plan? “A pipe burst,” says an insider
Nothing has been officially proposed so far, and the EU Commission is also not aware of any details, as its First Vice President Frans Timmermans said: “We don’t have any such plans. But I don’t know if there are any in some member states.” EU diplomats believe it is likely that the idea can be discussed at Versailles, but consensus is far away. “This is a non-starter,” commented another insider. Although it is difficult to foresee what kind of dynamics will arise among the heads of state and government, it can be expected that countries such as Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany will reject the idea. On Wednesday, a high-ranking EU official spoke of “rumours” and emphasized that energy independence is one of NGEU’s goals. In addition, the billions in Brussels are only just being paid out, which is why the recovery fund has not yet had its full effect.
In a separate statement, headlined “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine,” EU states pledge that they will not abandon the country under attack. Without giving details, they sent the following message to Putin: “We are ready to react quickly if further sanctions should be necessary.” The defense section of the Versailles declaration also states that they will “continue to invest in our mutual assistance under Article 42(7)”. Behind this is the EU treaty’s obligation to provide assistance, according to which “in the event of an armed attack on a member country” the other EU states owe it “all the help and support in their power”. Even if this has only been used once so far, namely by France in 2015, this can be interpreted as a signal to Moscow and Washington that the EU wants to take on more responsibility. Sweden and Finland, which are not members of NATO, also see this as an important signal.
Several heads of state and government from Eastern and Central Europe will ensure that the applications of Ukraine, Georgia and the Republic of Moldova to join the EU are discussed. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas called it a “moral obligation” in the European Parliament on Wednesday to give Ukraine the prospect of accession: “They’re not just fighting for Ukraine, they’re fighting for Europe.” The passage in the draft of the declaration shows how far the 27 members are from a consensus here. It only refers to the fact that the Member States asked the Commission to assess the request from Kyiv. Until this is available, the intention is to deepen the partnership with Ukraine.