Ethiopia’s government: Victories at the polling station, fears at the front

There will be elections again in parts of Ethiopia. The conditions for elections in the country torn by struggle are worse than ever. In the meantime, there is fear of genocide in Ethiopia.

In some parts of Ethiopia there is another election. The by-election had become necessary because of logistical problems and complaints from candidates in the two regions of Harar and Somali. In particular, there had been security concerns in other constituencies as well as in the entire Tigray civil war region. Especially in Tigray, with its more than six million people, there are still no votes. “The election is more of a formality than a legitimate process,” believes Hassan Khannenje from the HORN Institute for Strategic Studies in Nairobi. “You cannot hold free and fair elections under these conditions.”

Conditions have deteriorated dramatically since the main election date for the central government and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in June. The rebellious northern region of Tigray, which Abiy’s government troops occupied almost a year ago, has since been largely recaptured by their regional troops of the “Tigray Defense Forces” (TDF).

Even worse for the central government: The TDF is located in the heart of the Ethiopian heartland, in the Amhara region. The headquarters in Addis Ababa and the Amhara region have frantically called for general mobilization in order to prevent the further advance of the TDF – possibly in the direction of the capital.

A civil war with an ethnic component

The conflict has long since grown into a civil war in which alliances have formed across the country. The national army is fighting together with militias from Amhara and Afar. At the same time in Oromia the guerrillas of the “Oromo Liberation Army” (OLA) have allied themselves with the TDF. And that’s just the big lines. “We are seeing more and more coalitions between ethnic militias to force victory on the battlefield,” says Khannenje. The ethnic component of the conflict could lead to “ethnic cleansing or even genocide”.

The USA in particular warned against such rhetoric. This refers to flaming speeches like those of Ahmed’s advisor, Daniel Kibret, who recently propagated the destruction of the Tigrayer quite clearly. The now living should be “the last of their kind”. Such “weeds” should not multiply.

“At least individual elements in the government seem to have an interest in spreading genocide narratives in order to achieve their political and military goals,” said Khannenje. No wonder that atrocities have been occurring since the beginning of the campaign – initially by far predominantly on the government side, but now the TDF is also said to have violated international martial law.

New fronts

After all, the new fighters of the Amharen militia and the central government slowed down the storm of the TDF for the first time, a kind of front seems to have emerged. In order to take the pressure off, the allies now seem to want to pinch the Tigray region through the neighboring province of Afar.

And: neighboring Eritrea is still active with its own troops, they are occupying the western part of Tigray. In Amhara they seem to be helping to stabilize the front.

Is Reconciliation Still Possible?

Of course, most of the Ethiopians want the new government to achieve peace and end the dogged war, but this will be difficult in view of the downright demonization of the enemy. But people also want the economy to stabilize and the dizzying inflation to come to an end.

The Ethiopians are standing in front of a national house that was on the way to becoming a showpiece across Africa, but now has thick cracks and could even collapse. Apparently, many have not given up hope in Abiy Ahmed, the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize laureate. If he wants to live up to this hope, he will have to remember more than before what the world community once celebrated him for.