Erdogan’s lead in results is melting

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Created: 05/14/2023, 7:08 p.m

From: Max Schäfer, Bedrettin Bölükbasi

Split

Turkey election voting is over. The opposition reports irregularities and violence. The developments in the news ticker.

• Voting by Klilicdaroglu and Erdogan: CHP chief expresses confidence in becoming Turkey’s next president.
• Duel for the top: Kemal Kilicdaroglu challenges Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey’s elections.
• Follow all developments in Turkey’s elections in our news ticker.

Update from May 14, 7:10 p.m.: The CHP raises doubts about the results of the state news agency Anadolu. “Anadolu does not reflect the actual numbers. According to our numbers, Kilicdaroglu is ahead,” said Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu made a similar statement. According to CHP figures, Kilicdaroglu leads with 47.6% just ahead of Erdogan, who comes 46.59%. The third presidential candidate, Sinan Organ, has 5.35 percent. Accordingly, Kemal Kilicdaroglu himself is confident of victory. On Twitter the CHP candidate explained: “We are ahead.”

after the AnadoluHowever, Erdogan continues to lead the numbers. However, the lead is melting. Accordingly, after 40% of the votes counted, the AKP candidate has 52.7%, Kilicdaroglu 41.4%.

Erdogan’s lead in Türkiye’s election is dwindling

Update from May 14, 6:13 p.m.: Erdogan’s lead over Kemal Kilicdaroglu is getting smaller. Nevertheless, according to the latest figures from the state agency Anadolu, he received 55.5% – an absolute majority. The opposition candidate comes to 38.16%.

Update from May 14, 5:42 p.m.: According to the first official numbers, Erdogan is now ahead of Kilicdaroglu. The incumbent should get 49.85%, the challenger only 45.71 – a clear lead for Erdogan, even if only a little more than one percent of the votes have been counted so far.

Update from May 14, 5:25 p.m.: Turkish media are already reporting the first results of the Turkish elections – and a victory for Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The challenger is said to have received 53.74 percent of the votes. Incumbent Erdogan would only get 42.75%. The results are not official. Official figures should not be announced before 8 p.m.

Opposition and human rights organizations report manipulation of Turkey’s elections

Update from May 14, 4:39 p.m.: Shortly after the end of the closure of the polling stations for the Turkish elections, the opposition and human rights organizations reported attempts at manipulation. In Istanbul, the chairmanship of an election committee was canceled because he tried to vote for another voter, reported Istanbul CHP chairwoman Canan Kaftancioglu. In several cities, AKP election observers tried to enter voting booths with voters. Pre-stamped ballot papers also appeared in Giresun – all for President Erdoğan.

Update from May 14, 4:06 p.m.: The polling stations are closed. However, it will still be some time before the first forecasts or results are available. No results may be published until 5 p.m. Broadcasters can then publish the reports of the highest electoral authority YSK. All results will be available by 8 p.m. at the latest.

Update from May 14, 3:55 p.m.: A high turnout is emerging in Turkey’s elections. According to figures from the opposition, some ballot boxes in the metropolis of Istanbul were already full by early Sunday afternoon, and queues had formed in front of many polling stations before they opened in the morning.

Opposition politician hopes for “strong democracy” after Turkey election

Update from May 14, 3:16 p.m.: After voting in Istanbul, Turkish President Erdogan traveled to Ankara. He landed in the capital in the early afternoon, the state news agency Anadolu reported. Erdogan actually wanted to follow the results of the presidential and parliamentary elections from Istanbul. He had said that at noon.

Update from May 14, 2:10 p.m.: Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu enjoys great popularity among opposition voters. If the opposition wins the election, he is to become one of the seven vice-presidents of candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. He cast his vote in the Beylikdüzü district of Istanbul. “I hope that the results of this election will bring our country a strong democracy,” he said after casting his vote. All votes would have to be counted and the result accepted, said Imamoglu. Before Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy, the mayor of Istanbul was considered one of the potential opposition candidates.

Elections in Turkey: Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu cast their votes

Update from May 14, 12:39 p.m.: The Turkish opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu appeared confident when he voted in the course of the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey. He cast his vote in the capital, Ankara. Kilicdaroglu spoke to journalists. “We all missed democracy,” he said, according to Halk TV. “You’ll see, spring will come,” he added, and thanked all Turkish voters before leaving the polling station with his wife Selvi Kilicdaroglu. “Spring will come” is also the motto of the Turkish opposition alliance.

Incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan cast his vote in Istanbul. He also appeared with his wife, Emine Erdogan. He queued up and chatted with other voters. After casting his vote, Erdogan made a brief statement. “The election has so far gone without any problems,” he said, citing his interior minister, Süleyman Soylu, according to broadcaster AHaber. It is important that as many voters as possible cast their votes “to show the strength of Turkish democracy,” said Erdogan.

Turkey election: Votes for Ince are recognized as valid despite withdrawal

Update from May 14, 8:57 a.m.: It’s election day in Turkey. Voting for presidential and parliamentary elections has started. From 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time, a total of 60,697,845 eligible voters will be able to cast their ballots at 191,910 ballot boxes nationwide. Also in today’s election, 4,904,672 people will vote for the first time. Their votes, along with the foreign votes, are among the factors that will have a significant impact on the outcome of the election. Voters will be able to vote for four candidates in the presidential elections and for 24 parties in the parliamentary elections.

One of the four presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, withdrew a few days before the elections. However, the top electoral authority YSK announced that the ballot papers would therefore not be reprinted. The authority announced that the votes for Ince will be recognized as valid despite his withdrawal. Therefore, Turkish voters will still see four candidates on the ballot.

Türkiye election: More than 60 million eligible voters

First report from May 13: Ankara – The Turkish elections are imminent: On Sunday (May 14, 2023), more than 60 million eligible voters will decide who will be their head of state and head of government and who will represent them in the National Assembly. The election is a confrontation between the pro-government camp around incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the “Six Table”. That’s the name of the alliance of six opposition parties around the Kemalist-social-democratic CHP, which is behind Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Alongside Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, Sinan Oğan is running for president. However, he has no realistic chance of winning the election. A fourth candidate, opposition politician Muharrem Ince, withdrew shortly before the election. Both could still decide a possible runoff election, depending on who their voters will support.

Erdogan vs. Kilicdaroglu: Is the AKP politician losing the first Turkish election in over 20 years?

Erdoğan has not yet lost an election in Turkey – in more than 20 years. The AKP politician has been in power since 2002. In the election campaign before the presidential election on May 14, he therefore relies primarily on campaign promises: he promises schoolchildren tax-free computers and cell phones. He is also planning new transport projects and would like to adjust wages and pensions to the inflation rate. Erdoğan promises the regions affected by the earthquake rapid reconstruction. However, he does not say how this will be financed.

Reconstruction in the earthquake regions is also the focus of Kilicdaroglu’s demands ahead of Turkey’s elections. He also plans to make the region a center for trade with Africa and the Middle East. In addition, the “Six Table” promises to abolish the presidential system, which was only introduced in 2017 and which concentrates the offices of head of state and government on one person. In general, Killicdaroglu wants to strengthen democracy, human rights, freedom of the press and freedom of expression and release political prisoners.

Kilicdaroglu ahead of Erdogan in polls

Polls ahead of Turkey’s presidential election predict an election victory for Kemal Kilicdaroglu. According to PolitPro, he is ahead of Erdogan on average in all polls.

• Kilicdaroğlu: 48.9%
• Erdogan: 43.2%

However, to be elected president in Turkey’s elections, Kilicdaroglu needs more than 50 percent of the votes. If no candidate achieves an absolute majority, there will be a runoff in two weeks.

While Erdogan is trailing behind in the presidential election, his party is doing better in the polls. The AKP is currently the strongest force in the National Assembly, as the parliament is called in Turkey. When comparing the alliances, however, the situation is different. Some polls predict a majority for the “six table.” The PolitPro evaluation of various surveys at a glance:

In order for a party to enter the national assembly in Turkey’s elections, it must receive at least seven percent of the votes. (ms/bb/dpa/afp)