analysis
As of: January 6th, 2022 3:03 am
Today the FDP comes together for its traditional Epiphany meeting in Stuttgart. The mood in the run-up is good, but political opponents are attacking the party again as “failures”. The allegations have not yet caught on.
“Falling party” – this label has been attributed to the FDP time and again for decades. As early as 1969 it was the formation of the social-liberal coalition under Willy Brandt that many FDP supporters rejected. In 1982 the FDP’s flying change from Chancellor Helmut Schmidt to Chancellor Helmut Kohl cost massive support.
And in 2017, many friends of the FDP shook their heads when the party would rather not govern than govern wrongly – in an alliance with the Union and the Greens. With the start of the traffic light coalition, things now seem to be different.
Handwriting of the FDP
The “Faller” label could be used again. Shortly before the general election, party leader Christian Linder said that he “lacks the imagination” for an alliance with the SPD and the Greens, and that the Union is his preferred partner. It is now governed together with two stronger parties that are significantly further to the left – and the FDP leadership is relieved to note that this step has so far at least not cost much sympathy. In the current polls, the party is consistently in double digits.
The mood is good before the traditional Epiphany in Stuttgart, which is largely digital due to the Corona. According to widespread estimates, the traffic light coalition agreement bears the FDP’s signature disproportionately. The party was able to secure two ministries that were fiercely contested with the Greens – that for finance and that for digital and transport. And the justice and education ministries also offer the opportunity to set liberal accents.
Union attacks budget maneuvers
But after just under a month in government, the opposition is already pulling out the image of the “falling party” with relish – and that in two policy areas that are central to the soul of the FDP. The announcement by Finance Minister Lindner to move unused corona debts to a climate and transformation fund is being sharply attacked by the CDU / CSU. The Union criticizes that it is because of budgetary clarity and because of solid financial policy. She is a reminder that the FDP had promised in the election campaign not to loosen the debt brake.
Lindner countered that ultimately no more debt would be incurred than previously planned and that the debt brake should apply again from 2023. But the Union wants to have the 60 billion euro budget maneuver checked by the Federal Constitutional Court for its legality.
AfD suspects betrayal of the voters
The attacks on the subject of corona policy and mandatory vaccination are even more severe: If it initially looked as if the FDP was directing the traffic light parties with the amended Infection Protection Act in the direction of “Freedom Day”, the only thing left is the categorical exclusion of certain lockdown measures little left – driven by increasing numbers of infections and sustained fire from the Union.
The fact that FDP boss Lindner and other liberals now even consider compulsory corona vaccination to be necessary, shakes the core of a basic liberal understanding that many FDP supporters maintain. The faction leader of the AfD, Alice Weidel, did not miss the opportunity to describe the FDP in the Bundestag as a “fall-over party” which had “betrayed its voters in order to seize power”.
Vaccination is not yet an endurance test
In fact, the FDP is internally torn when it comes to compulsory vaccinations. Party leader Lindner would probably agree, party vice Wolfgang Kubicki and other members of the Bundestag have already formulated a motion that clearly says no, another part of the parliamentary group is still considering. The fact that the mandatory vaccination has not yet become an endurance test for the Ampel government is mainly due to the fact that Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his government partners decided early on to approve the possible vote: In the Bundestag, decisions should not be made along parliamentary lines, but the issue should be declared to be a question of conscience.
The party leadership is also closely following the polls when it comes to compulsory vaccination. They show that even the majority of FDP supporters are in favor of compulsory vaccination – although not as clearly as supporters of the Union or the SPD. It is becoming apparent, however, that there would be a majority in the Bundestag for compulsory vaccination even without the FDP. In this situation, the party could even sell a few dozen no-votes from Kubicki and others as evidence of liberal sincerity and steadfastness.
Many opportunities for the FDP
After less than a month in government, the FDP can therefore take stock: The “falling over” allegations have so far not caught on, even if the government FDP sounds audibly different on key issues than the election campaign FDP. And when looking ahead, the party will probably still expect a lot from its voters at the traffic lights so that the traffic light government works.
At the same time, the FDP with its ministries has the opportunity to set the tone and to be a liberal corrective to the SPD and the Greens when it comes to spending money, climate protection in transport policy or civil rights. And at the moment many liberals are more confident that this can succeed. Because of the “fallers” party.