Epiphany meeting of the FDP: A party in the traffic light dilemma

For more than 150 years, liberals have met on Epiphany to stake out their positions. For the FDP this year this means clarifying its role in the traffic lights.

The cartoonist Klaus Stuttmann outlined the results of the recently completed member survey in the Berliner Tagesspiegel as follows:

It has been clear for a long time: FDP supporters are uncomfortable with the traffic lights. In 2021, the party entered the coalition with the SPD and the Greens with great enthusiasm. The happy green and yellow selfie will never be forgotten. And the term “progress coalition” seemed to fit the image of the FDP, which promised voters modernization and digitalization in particular.

But disillusionment quickly set in. Since joining the federal traffic light coalition, the FDP has suffered one electoral defeat after another. In Berlin, Lower Saxony, Saarland and most recently in Bavaria it failed because of the five percent clause. And in Bremen and Hesse, the FDP narrowly avoided being eliminated from parliament.

The initiative narrowly failed

The dissatisfaction within our own ranks was now expressed in a member survey. The initiators like the Kassel liberal Matthias Nölke wanted to ensure that the FDP left the unpopular traffic lights. The initiative failed, but only narrowly – by around 52 to 48 percent. However, Nölke sees his opinion confirmed: It can be said that the FDP’s current course obviously does not appeal to everyone.

Of course, FDP leader Christian Lindner also knows this, who viewed the party members’ vote as an “expression of responsibility for Germany.” Lindner wasn’t particularly enthusiastic about the traffic lights.

In the Report from Berlin the ARD When asked about his famous sentence from 2017 that it was better not to govern than to govern badly, Lindner said: At the time, the FDP said that it would not enter a government “because we cannot implement many of our political contents – “We would betray our voters.” Now, after joining the government, you are in a different situation. You can’t just leave there.

Parties are not elected for prevention alone

After all, the close result helps Lindner in two ways: a majority vote to abandon the traffic lights would have caused unpleasant discussions in the party, even though the result of the member survey is not binding. A result that was too strong for him to remain in the traffic light would have weakened Lindner in the coalition – why be pointed when the members are satisfied with the traffic light.

But many FDP supporters have the impression that the party doesn’t do enough with the traffic lights. This is probably because the FDP primarily stands for the points that it is preventing: its no to weakening the debt brake and its no to tax increases.

This means that it is fundamentally successful – see the recent debate on the 2024 budget, for which the Greens and SPD wanted the debt brake to be suspended again. But parties are not elected for prevention alone. Critics within the party, such as the old liberal Gerhart Baum, also complain about the party’s image as a nay-sayer.

In multiple dilemmas

There is little progress on issues such as digitalization and reducing bureaucracy, which could have a positive impact on the FDP. The fact that the economy is weakening and doing worse than in other large industrialized countries does not exactly speak in favor of a government in which the FDP is involved.

Even when it comes to taxes, Lindner’s track record as finance minister is mixed: relief in wage and income taxes is offset by higher burdens on other taxes and social insurance. And the Karlsruhe ruling on the debt brake ultimately remains with him, even if the idea of ​​reallocating the Corona debt for climate investments came from Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his predecessor in office.

The FDP is faced with several dilemmas in its handling of the situation in the traffic light government. Because of her rejection of a possible Jamaica coalition in 2017, she is now more tied to the traffic lights than she would like. At that time, many supporters of the FDP, especially from business, criticized the party for this step. The concern within the FDP is that leaving the traffic lights could now be seen as a renewed escape from responsibility.

The public conflicts probably continue

At the same time, there is no sign of a new concept for the remaining years of the government. You have to “continue to show a liberal profile” in the traffic lights, said Lindner after the results of the member survey. As so often, party vice-president Wolfgang Kubicki expressed himself even more pointedly: The FDP must become “better and more assertive” in government.

This suggests that the often public conflicts with the coalition partners SPD and Greens continue. Secretary General Bijan Djir-Sarai says that there will likely be “communication-intensive moments here and there” in the future.

The FDP also knows that public disputes damage the image of the traffic light. But without a clear edge, the party leadership fears that it will be dragged down even further. This is also a dilemma for liberals.

Elections as a yardstick

The partial repeat of the federal elections in Berlin in February and the European elections in June will be indicators of whether the FDP can stabilize. The state elections in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia are likely to be particularly difficult – a survey recently caused a stir that saw the FDP in Saxony only at one percent.

For Europe, the party is relying on the popularity of its designated top candidate, defense politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. She will also be the keynote speaker at the Epiphany meeting, alongside party leader Lindner.

Otherwise, speakers from Baden-Württemberg shape the program: State leader Michael Theurer, who, as Parliamentary State Secretary in Berlin, stands for the traffic lights, while the Stuttgart parliamentary group leader Hans-Ulrich Rülke is in opposition to a state government led by the Greens – and precisely with the in Baden-Württemberg wants to score points in the upcoming local elections: “Our voters in the state see us as a counterpart to the Green policy proposal.” A balancing act, Rülke knows. Because in the federal government the FDP is seen as part of the joint coalition with the Greens.