The promise was full-bodied. Bavaria will be climate neutral by 2040. This is what Prime Minister Markus Söder announced more than a year ago, and it is now in the Free State’s new climate protection law, which was recently introduced in the state parliament. With the new law, Söder wants to top the federal government by five years. In his climate protection law, he has set himself the goal of a climate-neutral Germany by 2045.
All experts agree that the goal of the Free State, like that of the federal government, is extremely ambitious. Because it’s not just about CO₂-free electricity production. But also about climate-friendly heat, green hydrogen, traffic without greenhouse gases and much more. Nevertheless, they take Söder’s promises in the energy industry very seriously. The Association of Bavarian Energy and Water Management (VBEW) has been monitoring the progress Bavaria is making on the way to climate neutrality by 2040 for some time.
The state of Bavaria also fell far short of the rates for Söder’s target for the other indicators of the VBEW
“The results for the past year are sobering,” says VBEW general manager Detlef Fischer. “In terms of none of our indicators, the energy transition is even remotely on schedule.” The most striking thing is the backlog in wind power. According to Fischer, only five percent of the wind turbines that would have been needed this year if Söder’s goal was to be achieved were set up in 2021. “We urgently need to be honest,” says Fischer. “If we continue like this, climate-neutral Bavaria 2040 will be a political show to calm the population.”
The state of Bavaria also fell far short of the rates for Söder’s target for the other indicators of the VBEW. Only 40 percent of the photovoltaic systems that would have been required in 2021 were installed. According to Fischer, the figure was only half for the renovation of outdated heating systems and only 13 percent for new registrations of vehicles with sustainable drives. The production of green hydrogen continues to be a total failure. For a climate-neutral Bavaria in 2040, 125 large electrolysers would have had to be installed last year alone. This is the name of the apparatus in which water and renewable electricity are turned into green hydrogen. According to the VBEW, not a single one was set up.
Critics like to say that the goal of Fischer and his association is solely to show the state government and its failure in energy and climate protection policy. Also, Fischer, who for many years was a fervent advocate of nuclear power, has always had a certain sarcasm. On the other hand, it is the case that it was Söder who promised climate-neutral Bavaria by 2040. Fischer therefore claims that the state government will only be measured by its promises.
“Imports on a larger scale are likely to be difficult”
In addition, critics accuse Fischer and his VBEW of setting their indicators for the progress of the Bavarian energy transition far too high. After all, the state government has long since said goodbye to its previous energy policy principle that the Free State should at least produce the electricity that is consumed here itself and is increasingly relying on imports. “But where should all the green electricity for climate-neutral Bavaria come from if not from the state itself?” counters Fischer. “Imports on a larger scale are likely to be difficult. Because the other countries around us need their green electricity for climate protection.”
This puts Fischer back at the responsibility of the state government. “The implementation of climate-neutral Bavaria is a task for society as a whole,” he says. “But politics is particularly challenged. If the state government announces overly ambitious goals, they must also be overambitious when it comes to implementation.”